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Tuesday, March 5, 2024

2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open Sleeper Picks & Predictions

The Waste Management Phoenix Open parlays into the Super Bowl every year, and the boisterous party-like atmosphere is the calling card of the highly anticipated showdown in the desert at TPC Scottsdale.

This year’s edition has World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler looking to three-peat, and he’s followed by headliners Justin Thomas, Max Homa, and Jordan Spieth in the WM Phoenix Open odds.

Unfortunately, this isn’t the star-studded field we’ve become accustomed to in Scottsdale, so here’s our look down the golf odds boards for long-shots to win this week.

We’ve had a lot of success taking advantage of the finishing-position markets with these sleeper picks, so I’m again recommending quarter-unit bets when backing the following golfers outright.

I break them all down in my free Waste Management Phoenix Open golf picks below.

2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open sleeper picks

Picks were made on February 6 at 2:30 p.m. ET.

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2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open and TPC Scottsdale key stats

If you ever needed reinforcement about a specific requirement to win a golf tournament, it’s approach play at TPC Scottsdale. The winner at the Stadium Course has a Top-5 finish in true strokes gained on approach in six of the past nine events, with Scottie Scheffler (2023), Webb Simpson (2020), and Hideki Matsuyama (2017) all pacing the field. 

The greens typically play firm and fast, so the value of course knowledge is also affirmed by the number of repeat winners and slew of players who have had a track record of success at TPC Scottsdale.

The challenging layout features water hazards on six holes, and the desert-style course also places an emphasis on accuracy off the tee. Additionally, the final four holes bring a risk-reward dynamic that is also fuelled by the rambunctious crowds.

Finally, the lowest winning score over the past nine events has been 14 under, and the winner has never lost strokes on the greens during the event. As a result, I’m also valuing scoring average and strokes gained putting this week.

  • Strokes gained approach
  • Strokes gained tee-to-green
  • Scoring average
  • Total driving
  • Strokes gained putting

2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open sleeper predictions

Eric Cole to win outright (+5,000)

I’m going to continue backing Eric Cole as long as his odds aren’t aligned with his current form.

He’s ninth in true strokes gained putting, 19th in true strokes gained approach, and 15th in driving accuracy in this field across his past 15 measured rounds. Add his jump from 187th to 26th in total driving this season on the PGA Tour and I’m expecting him to put himself in position to score again this week.

He finished 15th in scoring average last season and has played the weekend in four of five starts to begin 2024. The outlier was a missed cut at the ill-suited Farmers Insurance Open.

The knock this week is that this will be his first professional trek around TPC Scottsdale. Career firsts weren’t an obstacle during his Rookie of the Year run last season, as each of his seven Top-10 results came as an event debutant. I also value Cole trading as short as +4,000 through DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars.

Pick: Eric Cole to win outright (+5,000 at BetRivers, 0.25 units)
Pick: Eric Cole Top 30 (+120 at bet365)

Adam Scott to win outright (+6,000)

This will be the second trip to the WM Phoenix Open for Adam Scott. He finished T38 in his 2022 debut while finishing 43rd in true strokes gained approach and 46th in true strokes gained tee-to-green.

The 14-time PGA Tour winner returns in much better form this time around. Scott ranked 12th and eighth, respectively, in those two categories last week at Pebble Beach and is 10th and fifth in this field across his past 16 measured rounds.

The elite ball-striking has also translated into an impressive string of finishes. Scott had four consecutive Top-10 results worldwide before turning in a T20 at Pebble. Additionally, I value his improved putting. He ranks 23rd in this field in true strokes gained putting over the past two years, which aligns with him finishing 26th in scoring average on Tour last season.

The 43-year-old vet might be in the twilight of his career, but his game is trending in the right direction, and he’s been knocking on victory’s door. Scott has a runner-up, six Top 5s, and another five Top-10 finishes over the past three years.

Pick: Adam Scott to win outright (+6,000 at bet365, 0.25 units)
Pick: Adam Scott Top 30 (+137 at bet365)

Covers golf betting tools

Lucas Glover to win outright (+15,000)

Simply put, we’re not far enough removed from Lucas Glover’s late-season heater last year for him to be trading in this range — and especially in this field. 

He also has a unique course history here. Glover’s best two finishes at TPC Scottsdale are a pair of T20 results in his first two trips in 2006 and 2007. He’s played the weekend in 10 of 13 visits since but hasn’t ever made a run at winning.

Still, he ranks second in strokes gained approach, fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green, and seventh in driving accuracy in this field across his past 28 measured rounds. The vet also ranked ninth in strokes gained approach last week at Pebble Beach and paced the field at The Sentry in January.

If you’re looking for a long shot who checks the most important box, it’s Glover. And, he’s won twice and has carded another three Top-10 finishes across his past 14 events.

Pick: Lucas Glover to win outright (+15,000 at FanDuel, 0.25 units)
Pick: Lucas Glover Top 40 (+137 at bet365)

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