Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions: All Categories
Brandon Wilson stars as Turner and Ethan Herisse as Elwood
L. Kasimu Harris / Amazon MGM / Orion
Weekly Commentary (Updated Sept. 26, 2024): The buzz from the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto film festivals is beginning to shape the landscape for this year’s awards season, offering early indicators of which films may dominate the race.
Looking ahead, several highly anticipated films have yet to be reviewed, adding further intrigue to the Oscar race. Steve McQueen’s World War II drama “Blitz” and James Mangold’s Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown” are expected to splash onto the scene. Additionally, Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator II” has generated serious buzz, while Jon M. Chu’s ” Wicked ” musical adaptation could be a significant player. Robert Zemeckis’ “Here,” a visually ambitious drama from Sony Pictures, also has the potential to break into technical categories.
Meanwhile, the New York Film Festival (NYFF) is set to kick off with its 62nd edition, further contributing to awards season chatter. RaMell Ross’ “Nickel Boys” will open the festival, aiming to regain momentum after a mixed reception at Telluride. “Blitz” and “The Room Next Door” will also make their stateside debuts, seeking to build on the promise they’ve already shown at international festivals.
With so many films vying for attention and the race still in its early stages, this year’s awards season promises to be one of the most exciting and unpredictable in recent memory.
This week’s updates include “Emilia Pérez,” which still holds the top spot in best picture, and three other categories. It’s also projected to be the most nominated movie with 11. Closing the gap right behind is “Gladiator II,” which is holding the top spot in director, supporting actor, cinematography, film editing, sound, and visual effects. We’ll see if it can live up to the promise.
Top 5 projected nomination leaders (films): “Emilia Pérez” (11); “Gladiator II” (10); “Dune: Part Two” (9); “Blitz” (8); “The Room Next Door” (7)
Top 4 projected nomination leaders (studios): Netflix (19); Sony Pictures Classics and Warner Bros. (11); Paramount Pictures (10); A24 and Neon (7)
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited artisans are not final and are subject to change.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
Best Picture
Image Credit: Focus Features “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Nick Gordon, D.J. Gugenheim, Andrew Lauren, Trevor Matthews, Andrew Morrison, Brian Young
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Fred Berger, Alex Heineman, Bob Bookman, Peter Jaysen, Alan Gasmer, Jeff Rosen, Timothée Chalamet, James Mangold
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Alice Dawson, Robert Harris, Juliette Howell, Michael Jackman, Tessa Ross
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar, Esther García
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jason Blumenfeld, Peter Rice, Jason Reitman, GIl KenanDirector
Image Credit: Paramount Pictures Pedro Almodóvar
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Sean Baker
“Anora” (Neon)
Brady Corbet
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Ridley Scott ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Actor
Image Credit: Atsushi Nishijima Adrien Brody
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes ***
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Paul Mescal
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Jesse Plemons
“Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)Actress
Image Credit: Courtesy of Videofilmes, Venice Film Festival Angelina Jolie ***
“Maria” (Netflix)
Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Mikey Madison
“Anora” (Neon)
Tilda Swinton
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Fernanda Torres
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Institute Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Stanley Tucci
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
John Turturro
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Denzel Washington ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Selena Gomez
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Saoirse Ronan ***
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Isabella Rossellini
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Zoe Saldaña
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Cannes Film Festival “Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Jesse Eisenberg
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Gil Kenan, Jason Reitman
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)
Mohammad RasoulofAdapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy Sony Pictures Classics “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Peter Straughan
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Jacques Audiard
“I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Murilo Hauser, Heitor Lorega
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro AlmodóvarAnimated Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
Gints Zilbalodis, Matīss Kaža, Ron Dyens, Gregory Zalcman
“Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney
“Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
Nick Park, Merlin Crossingham
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Chris Sanders, Jeff HermannProduction Design
Image Credit: Courtesy of Columbia Pictures “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Emmanuelle Duplay, Sandra Castello
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Arthur Max, Elli Griff
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jess Gonchor, Claudia BonfeOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Cinematography
Image Credit: Apple TV+ “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Yorick Le Saux
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
Phedon Papamichael
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Greig Fraser
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
John Mathieson
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Eduard GrauCostume Design
Image Credit: Universal “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
Colleen Atwood
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Jacqueline Durran
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jacqueline West
“Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
Linda Muir
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Film Editing
Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy Neon/YouTube “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker
“The Brutalist” (A24)
Dávid Jancsó
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Joe Walker
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Juliette Welfling
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
Sam Restivo, Claire SimpsonOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Briarcliff Entertainment
“The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Sound
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Visual Effects
Image Credit: ©Walt Disney Co./Courtesy Everett Collection “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Original Score
Image Credit: Everett Collection “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Hans Zimmer
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Harry Gregson-Williams
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Alberto Iglesias
“Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)
Jon Batiste
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Kris BowersOriginal Song
Image Credit: Netflix “Song title to be announced” from “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
“El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
“The Journey” from “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
“Kiss the Sky” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Netflix “Dahomey” (Mubi)
dir. Mati Diop
“Daughters” (Netflix) ***
dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)
dirs. Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)
dir. Josh GreenbaumOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
International Feature
Image Credit: Helen Sloan “Emilia Pérez” from France (Netflix) ***
dir. Jacques Audiard
“The Girl with the Needle” from Denmark (Mubi)
dir. Magnus von Horn
“I’m Still Here” from Brazil (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. Walter Salles
“Kneecap” from Ireland (Sony Pictures Classics)
dir. Rich Peppiatt
“The Seed of a Sacred Fig” from Germany (Neon)
dir. Mohammad RasoulofOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
