The most extreme projections on the rise in global temperature have been replaced by less apocalyptic forecasts, and although the world was not moving quickly enough to stop using fossil fuels, there seemed to be a realistic route to achieving a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades.
Rapid implementation of actions to stop using fuels Fossil fuels have given some reason for hope, but just as progress seems to be being made in combating global warming, the scale of the problem seems to be increasing.
Demand for electricity is at its peak, thanks to artificial intelligence and a new generation of energy-hungry data centers. Overall consumption continues to rise with the advent of a new middle class in the developing world. Moreover, the large-scale phase-out of planet-warming emissions is hampered by short-term policies, global conflicts and ossified financial markets.
These are just some of the topics discussed Wednesday at the Climate Forward conference hosted by The New York Times. Among those interviewed were primatologist Jane Goodall, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan and others.
By 2050, global electricity demand is expected to increase by up to 75 percent.according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Much of the demand will come from rapidly developing nations in Africa and Southeast Asia. Even in the United States, energy consumption has soared after 15 years of remaining relatively stable.
“Everyone assumes that energy demand will decline in rich countries over time,” said Raj Shah, president of the Rockefeller Foundation, a nonprofit group that promotes broader access to clean energy in poor countries. “But the next waves of technology, whatever they may be, will put an end to that idea.”
It is true that an increasing share of the world’s energy will come from clean sources, such as solar panels and wind turbines. Last year alone, nearly 86 percent of new electricity generation facilities built worldwide were from clean sources, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency.
With the global population expected to grow by as many as 1.7 billion people over the next 25 years and total energy demand set to rise accordingly, advances in solar and wind power may not be enough to rapidly phase out polluting forms of electricity such as oil, gas and coal. Rather than taking the place of fossil fuels, renewable energy sources have only helped meet the additional demand.
In fact, both oil and gas production and use are still booming around the world, and planet-warming emissions continue to rise.
Major economies like India and China continue to build new coal plants. The United States is now the world’s largest supplier of natural gas and is building new gas-fired power plants; it also produces record amounts of oil. And some countries in the Middle East are planning to continue pumping oil for many more decades.
Furthermore, while there are promising alternatives for zero-emissions power generation, less progress has been made in identifying viable replacements for products such as jet fuel, marine fuel, concrete and plastics, among others.
Large-scale change
The dangers of this election and a warmer planet are already clear. Average global temperatures have been 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels for most of the year, already exceeding the limit that scientists have long warned we must not exceed. The result: Last year was the hottest on record, with withering heat waves, deadly droughts and extreme weather across the planet.
As long as fossil fuel emissions continue at scale, temperatures will continue to rise, and heat and violent weather will continue to worsen. But the faster the world generates more clean electricity to replace fossil fuels, the sooner the planet will stop warming.
These simple truths make it abundantly clear how important the energy transition is for the planet. And since most new energy demand is expected to come from the developing world, the battle to keep global warming at bay will be won or lost in some of the poorest countries.
If the next billion people to gain access to reliable electricity in Africa and Asia get it from diesel generators and natural gas plants, emissions from those regions are likely to continue to rise for many decades, warming the planet.
Economics still prevent large-scale change worldwide; rising global energy demand has made the United States the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas, and pressures to keep energy prices low at home have led to record oil production.
Investors are discouraging big energy companies from investing in renewable projects. And with interest rates remaining high for two years, it is now very difficult to build well-established clean energy projects, especially wind power. As a result, utilities across the U.S. are backing off plans to green their operations.
Some government incentives, such as those provided in the Inflation Reduction Act, spurred a new round of investment in renewable energy and battery projects. Tax credits included in that act, the largest federal investment in history designed to combat climate change, have helped create hundreds of thousands of new jobs and spark a boom in domestic manufacturing.
A warmer environment
Even with these advances, it is difficult to get large, clean-energy power plants up and running, largely because the U.S. grid is antiquated and underdeveloped.
While there is no doubt that global population has exploded, energy use is at its peak and fossil fuels are not going away, some energy analysts still predict that the future could be bright.
“The projections show continued emissions that don’t always match climate targets,” said Mark Dyson, project director at RMI, a nonprofit group that works with companies to reduce emissions. “But projections change.”
Dyson, who studies long-term energy demand, said officials have for decades overestimated energy demand and underestimated the growth of renewables and efficiency gains.
Indeed, in the projections of high electricity demand, Dyson sees signs of progress. That’s exactly what should be expected as electric vehicles replace gasoline-powered cars and electric heating replaces kerosene or diesel. And now that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates, the cost of capital should come down, making some clean energy projects more affordable.
Although data centers consume enormous amounts of energy, they are becoming increasingly efficient, as are electric vehicles, new buildings, and many other electrified elements that are basic to modern life. A flurry of innovation is coming that could soon offer new, affordable options for reducing emissions, producing energy, and powering society.
Moving forward could involve breakthroughs in the implementation of clean energy. It could even involve discoveries in new forms of energy.
But as the catastrophic effects of climate change continue to mount, human ingenuity will have to do much more than provide energy more efficiently. It will also have to help humans adapt to life on a warmer planet.
c.2024 The New York Times Company
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