Today marks the final day of the Red Sox season, which for the third straight year will end without a trip to the playoffs.
The Red Sox conclude their schedule with one last game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park. After that, another long offseason awaits.
Now that we’ve reached the end of the road, let’s answer your questions in today’s mailbag.
Beginning of the year I asked how they win 90. How much of what you thought needed to happen actually did? — Paul Z.
Great question! So when Paul asked this originally back in February, I gave a breakdown of what a best-case scenario would look like for 2024. My response was long and detailed, but the main points were as follows.
Trevor Story gets back to his old form and delivers a Gold Glove and Silver Slugger caliber season. Tyler O’Neill stays healthy and posts numbers comparable to his breakthrough 2021 campaign. Jarren Duran hits 40 doubles and steals 30 bases. Rookies Wilyer Abreu, Vaughn Grissom and Ceddanne Rafaela establish themselves as everyday contributors. Brayan Bello makes the leap and becomes an ace, and the young starters who earn rotation spots make 32 starts and top 160 innings. Lucas Giolito returns to his Chicago White Sox peak and anchors the rotation, and Nick Pivetta puts himself in line for a big contract. With more reliable starting pitching the bullpen doesn’t get burnt out, and Boston’s competitors in the AL East take a step back.
Red Sox mailbag: What would it take for this team to win 90 games?
In hindsight, a lot of that actually happened! But obviously several important things did not.
First, the good. O’Neill didn’t quite stay healthy but he still topped 30 home runs, and Duran blew past 40 doubles and 30 stolen bases to put together an outstanding all-around season. Grissom’s season was a bust but Abreu and Rafaela both carried their weight as rookies. Even if Bello didn’t pitch like an ace, Tanner Houck did for large portions of the season, and he, Bello and Kutter Crawford all topped 30 starts and 160 innings, so close enough there.
We could argue about what kind of contract Pivetta’s put himself in position to land, but he was solid as well, and the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays did fall back to Earth, helping ensure the Red Sox won’t finish last a third straight season.
So why didn’t the Red Sox break through and win 90 games? The biggest problem was Story getting hurt again barely a week into the season, and then Triston Casas also going down shortly afterwards. We’ve seen what a difference those two can make, so who knows how things could have gone if the Red Sox hadn’t been without both in the heart of the order for four months?
Losing Giolito for the season during spring training was also killer, as was Garrett Whitlock’s latest setback, and even with more reliable starting pitching the bullpen also collapsed once again in the second half.
At the end of the day, the Red Sox always needed everything to go perfectly if this team was ever going to meaningfully compete. Once again they didn’t have the talent or the depth to survive the kind of setbacks they encountered, so while this season represents a step forward, it can’t be called a success.
What is going to be the appetite for pursuing free agents? Is ownership willing to spend the money? — Shawn H.
Recent history suggests probably not. Ever since ownership fired Dave Dombrowski there has been a clear shift in organizational philosophy towards executing a long-term rebuild. The club has stuck to that approach even in the face of underwhelming results at the big league level, and Boston’s payroll — once consistently top five in the sport — has now fallen to the middle of the pack as well.
A cynical reading of the situation is John Henry and Co. have become content to maximize profits even if the result is a consistently mediocre product.
At this point the Red Sox haven’t earned the benefit of the doubt, but the club has spent aggressively and won before. Given where the team is now, there are reasons to believe ownership could decide the time has come to flip the switch and go for it once again.
The biggest reason for hope is the club’s long-term rebuild is nearly complete. Boston’s big four of Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel and Kristian Campbell have reached Triple-A and will likely impact the big league club in some fashion next year. Two homegrown standouts, Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck, also broke out as All-Stars this year, and others like Bello, Crawford, Casas, Connor Wong, Abreu and Rafaela, just to name a few, have established themselves as reliable big leaguers.
The foundation that Boston has spent the last six years building is firmly in place.
With all of those homegrown players, the Red Sox are now in a position where they may end up only needing one or two impact players in free agency to make a difference, rather than five or six. That shouldn’t be a hard sell, so if ponying up to bring in a big-time slugger or an ace means the difference between a playoff season and another year of “meh,” hopefully ownership will open their wallets and make it happen.
What is the plan for next year? Major trades, shaking up the coaching staff or executive office? — Tim B.
I wouldn’t expect anything significant as far as leadership changes. Alex Cora just signed a three-year extension midseason and Craig Breslow is wrapping up his first full year as chief baseball officer. Maybe we could see some changes to the coaching staff or the addition of a No. 2 to serve under Breslow in the front office hierarchy, but otherwise the major decision-makers should all return.
Now, let’s talk trades.
Craig Breslow has already signaled that many of this offseason’s additions will likely come via trade. The offense skews massively left-handed, and with pretty much everyone set to return besides O’Neill the only way Boston can balance its lineup is by moving out one of its left-handed bats.
What’s that mean? At least one of Casas, Duran, Abreu or Masataka Yoshida is almost certainly getting traded.
Dealing from that group would presumably net a right-handed bat or more pitching, either of which would help address one of Boston’s biggest needs. Each of those players has different levels of value, but someone like Duran or Casas could certainly serve as the centerpiece of a deal that might net the ace the Red Sox have been looking for.
To be clear, I don’t want to see the Red Sox lose either of those guys, but if the return was someone like Chicago White Sox righty Garrett Crochet or Seattle’s George Kirby, it’s a move Breslow would have to consider.
Will any rookies crack the Opening Day lineup? — Danny E.
I think Kristian Campbell has an excellent chance of making the Opening Day roster as the starting second baseman. Campbell has shot up through the system like a rocket and his rise from relative obscurity to arguably the top hitter in the minors this season is without precedent. He’ll have to win a competitive position battle with Grissom and David Hamilton, but who are we to bet against him at this point?
The other one to watch is Anthony. He’s the No. 1 prospect in MLB for a reason and has earned rave reviews everywhere he’s gone. If the Red Sox were to trade Duran or Abreu this offseason he could immediately slot in as their replacement, and frankly, he’s going to push his way into the equation no matter who else is in front of him.
Is there a chance that the Sox could sign Nick Pivetta to a new contract and put him in the bullpen where he has thrived in the past? Is this possible or would he command too much on the free agent market as a starter? — Scott L.
The Red Sox could definitely re-sign Pivetta, but if they do I highly doubt we’d see him pitch out of the bullpen. He’s going to command a healthy market as a starter in free agency this winter, and the only reason it would make sense for Boston to bring him back is if he’s going to remain in the rotation.
It’s worth noting too that he wasn’t a fan of the bullpen experience last year, so if there were any inkling that could happen again, my guess is he would simply choose to sign with another team where that would be less of a possibility. Obviously teams can use players however they want once they’re under contract, but Pivetta is a starting pitcher and that’s what he’ll be no matter where he lands next season.
What will the radio booth look like next year? Hard to imagine life without Joe but Flemming and Lou are both very good, and the McDonough appearances are always welcome. — Adam V.
WEEI hasn’t announced its plans for next year, but one thing is for sure, Red Sox games are never going to sound the same without Joe Castiglione.
Many of my formative memories as a fan involve listening to Joe in the car or in my room on school nights after I was supposed to have gone to bed, and one of the coolest parts of covering the team now is having the chance to get to know him on a personal level. Joe is a great guy and after 42 years he’s earned a long and happy retirement.
That being said, Joe does still have one more game left to call today, so even if the Red Sox don’t have much left to play for at this point, fans should definitely be sure to tune in for his final broadcast. NESN is also planning on airing his radio call for the ninth inning, which is a fantastic idea and a great way to send off a club legend.
