This week has been particularly challenging for Hezbollah. The detonation of wireless devices on Tuesday and Wednesday within covert operations was followed by the bombing of Beirut’s southern suburbs on Friday that killed Ibrahim Aqil, commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force, along with 15 senior leaders.
The assassinations of senior Hezbollah figures deliver a significant blow to the group. These leaders were crucial to Hezbollah’s military strategy, and their loss could have several ramifications.
After the killing of 15 commanders, the assassination of operations commander Fuad Shukr in July, the injury and incapacitation of thousands of members in cyberattacks, and the 700 killed in battles in southern Lebanon, has Hezbollah become a military body without a head?
Dr Elie Hindi, associate professor of international relations at the American University in the Emirates, does not believe that Hezbollah has lost all of its military capacities despite receiving a very serious blow in the past week, and in the past 11 months of confrontations.
But he argued that Hezbollah needed to face its internal challenges. “Its claims about the ability to defeat Israel are completely unrealistic and, more importantly, the myth that Hezbollah has created – that it is a strong army capable of defeating Israel and defending the Lebanese who support it – has also collapsed,” he said.
This will create a significant problem for Hezbollah in the way that it interacts with Lebanese citizens in the aftermath of the war, Dr Hindi added.
The deaths of Aqil and Shukr have prompted questions over who remains to lead Hezbollah, and whether it has transformed into a military entity without its key commanders.
Many of Hezbollah’s founding generation, including significant religious and political figures crucial to establishing the party in the early 1980s, have been assassinated. Notable among them are Sayyid Abbas Al-Musawi, a founding member and Hezbollah’s first secretary-general, killed by Israel in 1992, Sheikh Ragheb Harb, an influential figure in the resistance against Israel in southern Lebanon, assassinated in 1984, and Mustafa Badreddine, Hezbollah’s military leader and head of its external operations, killed in Syria in 2016.
These founders worked with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard to establish the group as a response to Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon, playing a significant role in its political and military development.
Hezbollah may now rely on leadership figures who are not widely known but possess valuable military expertise. It is also likely that changes within Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, a highly secretive inner circle, will occur in light of recent events, with new individuals potentially being elevated to leadership roles.
Militarily, though, Hezbollah still has a lot of capabilities, Dr Hindi said, including human resources, soldiers, equipment, rockets, drones and various kinds of weapons in its arsenal.
“While Hezbollah is definitely weaker and significantly embarrassed politically and militarily due to the attacks, it is far from reasonable to say that Hezbollah is militarily finished or unable to act militarily any more,” he added. “Hezbollah remains capable of waging war and responding to Israel.
He pointed to estimates that suggest Hezbollah has about 60,000 active members, but as many as 100,000 are trained fighters.
“While these numbers might be exaggerated, they are definitely not far from the truth,” Dr Hindi said. “That even if Hezbollah lost 10,000 soldiers, it would still have significant numbers of soldiers and mid-level leaders, and its top leadership remains present.”
Hezbollah is also fighting on its own ground, making any potential Israeli land invasion very difficult and costly for Israel, Dr Hindi added, while Hezbollah can also draw on its presence in Syria, “where it can potentially receive assistance from Iraqi militias, Syrian militias, and even Yemeni militias who could join the fight and direct their attacks toward Israel”.
While he cautioned that it is unlikely, the potential for Iran to interfere directly in support of Hezbollah is another consideration. “Iran has clearly given some kind of commitment to the US that it will not interfere in the war. Nevertheless, this potential still needs to be considered as one of Hezbollah’s strengths”.
At 1am on Sunday, the missile force of Hezbollah launched a strike targeting the Israeli Air Force’s Ramat David Airbase south-east of Haifa. The base is the largest and most important Israeli airbase in northern Israel.
Rocket fire also targeted Rafael, a military devices facility that specialises in electronic devices and equipment located in northern Haifa.
“The resistance has shown strategic wisdom by continuing to focus its attacks on military targets without striking civilian sites, thus placing the burden of any potential escalations on Israel, particularly after the resistance made it clear that the strikes are a response to Israel’s expansion of aggression, which has led to the martyrdom of numerous civilians”, said General Omar Marabouni, a Lebanese military and strategic affairs researcher who is close to Hezbollah.
According to Hezbollah’s statement issued on Sunday morning, the strike is also connected to supporting the Gaza front, implying that retaliation for the assassinations of leaders is yet to come and will follow its own distinct path, with different considerations regarding the timing, location, and nature of the targets.
According to General Marabouni, the use of medium-range missiles, identified as “Fadi 1” and “Fadi 2” – the same Fajr 3 and Fajr 5 missiles used in the 2006 conflict – indicates that the resistance has not yet introduced new weapons into the current battle. “This underscores an important message: the resistance can still enforce deterrence using older missile systems against the enemy’s advanced technology,” the analyst said.
This escalation occurred alongside the focused Israeli bombardment of Beirut. Israeli missiles struck two buildings in the al-Qaem neighbourhood in the Beirut southern suburbs on Friday, killing 45 people, injuring 70 and leaving 15 missing, Lebanon’s health ministry said.
These developments are viewed as a response to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on Thursday, where he affirmed his commitment to maintaining the link between the Lebanese and Gazan fronts under any circumstances.
He reiterated the intention to prevent northern Israeli residents from returning home until a ceasefire is established in Gaza and the war ends.