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Tuesday, October 8, 2024

Inside Drake Maye’s debut and how bad was the Thursday night loss? – Boston Herald

Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers knew right away.

“We came out and got our a— kicked,” he said late Thursday night.

The film agreed.

Thursday’s’ 24-3 loss to the Jets was more than a manhandling or an embarrassment. It was a cartoonish brawl spinning end zone to end zone, players rolling in a cloud, fists sticking out and the same loser seeing stars at the end of virtually every drive: the Patriots.

The Jets pummeled their longtime tormentors, dominating the Pats at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Patriots’ offensive line remains a no-charge vending machine for pressure. It allowed a season-worst seven sacks and pressure on 54% of pass plays; a rate that bears repeating.

More than half the time Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye dropped back to pass, they were hit or hurried.

Defensively, the Pats suffered against a familiar ball-control formula that yielded 133 rushing yards and more than 40 minutes of possession time for the Jets. Peppers and Co. also whiffed on 12 tackles, their second-highest single-game total since the start of the 2021 season and a clear breakdown of fundamentals and spirit. Aaron Rodgers shredded their coverage plan, even picking his spots with star receiver Garrett Wilson who had five catches and a touchdown working mostly in the shadow of Christian Gonzalez.

The good news: the defense should rebound. The Pats have ranked among the surest tackling teams in the NFL for years. Gonzalez is a stud.

The bad news: it takes more than tackling to win in the NFL. And right now, scoring enough points feels frighteningly difficult to come by given the state of an offensive line that may be the franchise’s worst pass-protecting unit in the modern era.

So, where is the hope? And what about Maye?

Here’s what the film revealed about the Patriots’ latest loss:

Jacoby Brissett

12-of-18 for 98 yards, 5 sacks

Accurate throw percentage: 70.6%

Under pressure: 3-of-8, 28 yards, five sacks

Against the blitz: 2-of-6 for 28 yards, three sacks

Behind the line: 5-of-6 for 28 yards

0-9 yards downfield: 6-of-7 for 48 yards

10-19 yards downfield: 1-of-1 for 22 yards

20+ yards downfield: 0-of-3

Notes: More of the same for the Pats’ starting quarterback, plus a couple extra sacks. And when Brissett is not avoiding sacks, he’s not driving a winning effort.

Again, he operated mostly within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and was forced to navigate a steady barrage of pressure. Brissett’s only bad miss downfield likely cost the Patriots some points: a corner-route overthrow of tight end Austin Hooper in the first half that would have been an explosive play into Jets territory. Brissett is now 0-of-5 this season on deep throws, though he’s completed more than half his attempts in the intermediate area (10 to 19 yards downfield).

Against the Jets, Brissett also faced significant unblocked pressure, which arrived on six of the 13 combined sacks, hits and hurries he took. In Alex Van Pelt’s offense, the center sets the protections, which alleviates some of the blame here on the quarterback. But Brissett remains more caretaker than playmaker, and in games like Thursday’s, the Patriots will need more of the latter.

Drake Maye

4-of-8 for 22 yards, 2 sacks, 12 rushing yards

Notes: I’m sorry. Thursday’s tape offered no real insight into Maye’s long-term prospects as an NFL quarterback.

He saw fewer than five minutes of game time. He directed one drive with the same type of personnel (three receivers, one running back, one tight end) on every snap. He faced a smattering of Jets backups.

Maye looked like a rookie, played like a rookie, and that is to be expected.

He did thread a nice 15-yard completion on fourth down to DeMario Douglas before ending the game on his back. Diving a little deeper, he went 0-of-2 against the blitz, with a couple scrambles for 12 yards. Facing pressure, he scrambled for one yard and took a massive hit, then had an incompletion affected by another hit and absorbed the two sacks.

Maye’s athleticism is an obvious plus, but it is not synonymous with sack avoidance or pocket presence. The 22-year-old has room for growth in both areas, which will come with reps. In the meantime, the Patriots must decide whether reps behind this offensive line are worth it for the future of their franchise; a tough, smart player whose physical tools are plenty evident and summer-time development has been encouraging, but otherwise remains a mystery.

How Patriots coaches graded Drake Maye’s NFL debut vs. Jets

Critical areas

Turnovers: Patriots 1, Jets 0

Explosive play rate: Patriots 2.1%, Jets 5.4%

Success rate: Patriots 29%, Jets 55%

Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 0-1, Jets 3-4

Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 20%, Jets 54.2%

Offense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 79% of snaps in 11 personnel, 17% snaps in 12 personnel, 4% snaps in 13 personnel.***

Personnel production: 34% success rate in 11 personnel, 12.5% success rate in 12 personnel, 0% success rate in 13 personnel.

First-down down play-calls: 32% run (17% success rate), 68% pass (31% success rate)

Play-action rate: 20%

Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt told reporters Friday he regretted his game plan. He had reasons to regret.

Van Pelt called passes on seven of the Pats’ first nine plays and twice as many passes than runs in the first half, despite facing a Jets defense that had allowed 4.7 yards per carry and ranked bottom 10 in run defense by DVOA and Pro Football Focus grades. He also called passes on seven of their first 11 first-down snaps while the game was in relative reach. Worse yet, the Jets had a beat on his play-action calls, much like Seattle last weekend.

Running play-action, Brissett started 2-of-3 for one yard and took two sacks.  He got hit three times on these plays, including twice on unblocked pressures. The Jets knew how to attack the Patriots’ protection schemes and short-circuited their bootleg passes by widening the alignment of their defensive ends. This allowed the ends to rush freely and diagnose whether Brissett had handed the ball off or was turning back around in their direction after faking outside zone hand-offs.

As soon as he turned around, Brissett got smacked. Once the Jets staked a two-possession lead, their pass rush proved relentless, even without blitz pressure, which overwhelmed the Patriots. Brissett got sacked on one-third of his dropbacks versus the blitz.

Player stats

Broken tackles: WR DeMario Douglas 4, RB Rhamondre Stevenson 2, RB Antonio Gibson 2, TE Austin Hooper

Pressure allowed: Team 6 (2 sacks, 3 QB hits, hurry), LT Caedan Wallace 3 (2 hurries, QB hit), LG Michael Jordan 2 (2 sacks), C David Andrews 2 (sack, QB hit), RG Layden Robinson 2 (sack, QB hit), RT Mike Onwenu (hurry), QB Drake Maye (hurry)

Run stuffs allowed: Team

Drops: None

Notes

  • Until the Patriots can consistently run the ball to early leads, poor pass protection will undermine the entire offense. There are too many weak points for opponents to attack, and whatever that number is, it’s growing.
  • The Jets blitzed more than twice as much as the Bengals and Seahawks did in Weeks 1 and 2 combined, sending extra rushers 13 times. Their most effective blitzes rushed a safety or cornerback late off the edge, exploiting either a lack of awareness by rookie left tackle Caedan Wallace or right tackle Mike Onwenu or the Pats’ protection rules.

  • Drake Maye didn’t complete a pass against the blitz, while Brissett had two completions to three sacks. The Jets’ blitz-happy plan now illuminates another path for future opponents to create pressure, unlike Cincinnati and Seattle who primarily rushed four.
  • When they rushed four, the Jets unlocked free runners by executing two-man stunts across from Wallace and former practice-squad veteran Michael Jordan. Wallace yielded three pressures, and got flagged for holding twice, while Jordan allowed two sacks failing to pass off stunting rushers.
  • On the opposite side, rookie right guard Layden Robinson gave up a sack and a QB hit. He’s a beast in the run game, and fierce overall, but a walking target in pass protection.
  • Onwenu was the Pats’ only bright spot up front, allowing a single pressure while the Pats averaged 5.2 yards per carry off the right side.
  • Carrying the ball is only half the battle, of course. Rhamondre Stevenson forced just two missed tackles and fumbled for a third time this season. He deserves to lose more of his snaps to Antonio Gibson. Fumbling that often is inexcusable.

  • Finally, targets for DeMario Douglas. The Pats’ best receiver looked the part again, with seven catches for 69 yards, both team highs. He also drew his third defensive flag this season.
  • Douglas beat man coverage on his 22-yard catch in the third quarter, the Pats’ longest gain of the day. Overall, the Patriots beat man-to-man for just four completions. Tight end Hunter Henry, rookie receiver Ja’Lynn Polk and second-year wideout Kayshon Boutte had the others.
  • Game script forced Van Pelt to abandon his typically high rate of 12 personnel (two tight ends, one running back) in favor of more spread sets, but it wasn’t as if those two-tight end groupings had much success. The Pats enjoyed one successful play in eight snaps with Henry and Austin Hooper on the field.

Defense

Game plan

Personnel breakdown: 35% three-corner nickel package, 24% three-safety nickel, 23% base, 15% dime, 3% goal-line.****

Coverage breakdown: 60% zone, 40% man

Blitz rate: 20%

Blitz efficacy: 77% offensive success rate and 9.33 yards per play allowed

No surprise, Patriots defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington assigned Christian Gonzalez to shadow Garrett Wilson, another opposing No. 1 receiver, and played a lot of Cover 2 around his man-to-man calls. It was the same basic plan Covington designed in Weeks 1 and 2. And just like Geno Smith in the Pats’ Week 2 loss to Seattle, Aaron Rodgers had no problem identifying and beating all types of pressure.

That was a significant problem for the Pats, who again leaned on creative blitzes and simulated pressures to get the offense off the field in high-leverage situations: third downs, snaps inside the red zone and on the fringe of field goal range. Instead, Rodgers went 7-of-9 for 84 yards and two touchdowns versus the blitz. He never looked off-balance, let alone confused.

The Pats also increased their rate of man coverage, something Rodgers exploited by playing matchup ball with passes to Allen Lazard (6-foot-5) and Mike Williams (6-foot-3) when they were matched against smaller corners in Jonathan Jones, Alex Austin and Marcus Jones. Rodgers finished 13-of-16 for 118 yards and two touchdowns versus man-to-man.

Against Cover 2, he carved up the middle of the field with targets for tight end Tyler Conklin (five catches) and on checkdowns to running back Breece Hall (four catches). In addition to failing with their disguises and pressure packages, the Pats couldn’t stop the run out of their preferred two-high coverage shell. That let Hall and fellow running back Braelon Hall eat for more than 100 combined rushing yards and a touchdown, then cut Rodgers loose to attack 1-on-1 matchups outside with only a single safety deep.

Player stats

Pressure: DL Keion White 3 (2 QB hits, hurry), OLB Anfernee Jennings 2 (hurry, drawn hold), DL Deatrich Wise (sack), OLB Joshua Uche (sack), LB Jahlani Tavai (hurry)

Run stuffs: Jennings 2, Tavai

Pass deflections: CB Jonathan Jones

Missed tackles: Tavai 3, LB Raekwon McMillan 2, CB Christian Gonzalez, CB Alex Austin, S Jaylinn Hawkins, CB Jonathan Jones, Jennings, Uche

Notes

  • Tackling, tackling, tackling. The Pats will not win many games with the talent deficit they have until they wrap up defensively.
  • Linebackers Jahlani Tavai (three) and Raekwon McMillan (two) were the chief offenders Thursday. The Pats dearly missed Ja’Whaun Bentley, not only as their chief run-stuffing linebacker but one of their surest tacklers. Next Gen Stats estimated the Jets gained an extra 100 yards off missed tackles.
  • Aside from bad tackling and failing to affect Rodgers with blitz pressure, the Patriots’ fatal flaw was failing to contain him in the pocket. Rodgers converted four first downs outside the pocket, either via scramble or extended plays that resulted in completions.

  • Tavai lost the first contain, then edge defenders Anfernee Jennings, Joshua Uche and Keion White all took turns letting Rodgers loose for what may have been sacks if they closed the pocket. Tavai also allowed three catches in covereage.
  • In the back end, Rodgers took advantage of veteran safeties Jaylinn Hawkins and Kyle Dugger by moving them with his eyes to open up windows in zone coverage. Dugger also failed to get an appropriate drop down the middle in a Cover 2 call before halftime that led to a field goal attempt.
  • At corner, Christian Gonzalez went head-to-head with Garrett Wilson 30 times and allowed four catches, plus his touchdown. A solid day for Gonzalez, despite missing a tackle and surrendering the first touchdown of his career.
  • A better outing for Jonathan Jones, who forced a fumble and broke up a would-be touchdown pass late to Mike Williams.
  • The Patriots need more help at defensive tackle and depth in the front seven. The Jets forced them to beef up in base personnel, then successfully ran at their 3-4 defense over and over again. The Pats finished with a season-high 21 snaps of base defense (seven combined linebackers and defensive linemen), with newly-signed Eric Johnson and former special tamer Chrristian Elliss seeing snaps.

Special teams

  • However poor the Patriots’ offense looks, Bryce Baringer is there to deodorize the end of most drives with booming punt after booming punt.
  • He averaged 49 yards per punt, and dropped three of five inside the Jets’ 20-yard line Thursday. None bounced into the end zone for a touchback.
  • Backup running back JaMychal Hasty triggered just the second kick return of the Patriots’ season, which he might want to have back. Hasty covered just 18 yards.

Studs

OLB Anfernee Jennings

The only bright spot for the Patriots, Jennings tallied a game-high two run stuffs and a couple hurries. Keion White was the only other Patriot to register multiple pressures.

Duds

Offensive line

Too many duds to pick just one. A pressure rate of 54. Come on.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson

Three fumbles in three games. That’s a one-way ticket to the bench, no matter who you are or how many yards you pick up after contact, and Stevenson sat for the final 14:02 Thursday.

LB Jahlani Tavai

Tavai missed a game-worst three tackles, and Rodgers regularly picked on him in coverage. He also got flagged for unnecessary roughness in the first quarter.

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