The 2023-24 offseason has been an atypical one: there are still many moves to make and free agents to sign.
You can also argue that there are trades to complete.
However, many teams have finalized their roster additions or are close to that point.
Now that we are almost headed to spring training, it’s time to check Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections when it comes to the 2024 standings.
Per PECOTA, the New York Mets will have a 49.2 percent chance of making the 2024 postseason with an 84-78 record.
“The Mets are projected to finish third in the NL East and have been given a 49.2% chance to make the playoffs, according to 2024 PECOTA standings from Baseball Prospectus,” SNY Mets tweeted.
The Mets are projected to finish third in the NL East and have been given a 49.2% chance to make the playoffs, according to 2024 PECOTA standings from Baseball Prospectus pic.twitter.com/HAOgMmVAbc
— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) February 6, 2024
The Mets are projected by PECOTA to finish the year at 84-78, the same record as the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Mets, as you probably remember, were sellers last year, trading Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, David Robertson, Mark Canha, and other established stars.
2024 was supposed to be a transition year.
Yet, the Mets have a strong farm system and a good core, with Francisco Lindor, Kodai Senga, and Edwin Diaz leading the way.
If some young players like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos take a step forward, they could potentially contend.
And if they need to make trades to bolster their chances, their farm system is much improved.
To this day, 2025 still seems like a more realistic target to make it to October.
However, a couple of lucky breaks could put the Mets in contention as soon as 2024, and PECOTA recognizes that.