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What will a second term of office mean? donald trump for USA and the world? Optimists can point to what happened last time: His presidency, they may claim, was much ado about nothing. But it meant little. He ruled more conventionally than many feared. Furthermore, in the end, Joe Biden defeated him and he left. He left reluctantly, it is true, but what else could one expect? He left anyway. Why wouldn’t it be similar if he wins again, as the polls suggest?
trump He is an expert in empty promises. In 2016, a centerpiece of his campaign was the “wall” that Mexico would pay for. In the end, there was no wall, much less money from Mexico. This time he promises to arrest and deport 11 million undocumented immigrants. The operation needed to achieve that would be immensely expensive and controversial. Indeed, how and where would many millions of people be deported?
More ridiculous is Trump’s suggestion that raising tariffs will eliminate the income tax. This is complete nonsense. According to an article by Kimberly Clausing and Maurice Obstfeldeven the revenue-maximizing tariff of 50 percent for all sectors would generate less than 40 percent of the revenue that comes from the income tax. The net loss of tax revenue will destroy the spending their older voters depend on.
However, a second presidency of trump It could still be much worse than the first. In 2016 he was the dog that reached the car (someone who tried very hard to achieve something and when he got it he didn’t know what to do with it). In his ignorance, he ended up hiring people who did not share his goals or interests. Now the Republican Party consists of loyalists who accept that the “great leader” defines the truth, as he did with the 2020 election results. The Heritage Foundation’s 2025 Project has also drawn up plans to rein in the federal government, while The Supreme Court declared that, in his “official duties,” the president is above the criminal law. He will feel vindicated and will be vengeful.
What can persuade trump what to do with this? Increase the already huge US fiscal deficits and put pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low. If he could appoint devoted loyalists to run the Justice Department, the intelligence agencies, and the Internal Revenue Servicecould proceed to prosecute those he perceives as enemies without any restrictions. He could justify such actions as a quid pro quo (exchange) for the many justified lawsuits against him. He could also pardon the insurrectionists of January 6, 2021, who tried to prevent the certification of the results of the last elections. With control over the armed forces, he could freely declare martial law. More generally, using the apparatus of government to exert control over parts of the country considered too independent.
Abroad he could implement his trade war with few restrictions, even against Canada and Mexico. As commander in chief, he could make the commitments of the NATO were meaningless, simply indicating his reluctance to order troops into combat. It could, once again, withdraw from all climate agreements at an even more delicate time. It could make the functioning of institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank; support the far right throughout Europe and even abandon Ukraine.
When considering all the implications for the world, we must distinguish the direct effects of such actions from the indirect effects of their return. The latter will, above all, be the stimulus for right-wing populists seeking power, especially in Europe. With USAthe great bastion of democracy in the 20th century, under authoritarian control, there would be a shift in the global balance against liberal democracy, not only in terms of power, but ideological credibility. After all, the United States has been the model, however imperfect, for much of the world of a democratic order governed by law. Your choice of trump for the second time it will be very important.
Trump is, at the very least, a “fascist” and can credibly be called a fascist. In interviews with The New York Times, John Kellythe former US Marine general who was his longest-serving chief of staff, stated that “in his opinion, Trump meets the definition of a fascist, will rule as a dictator if he is allowed to, and does not understand the Constitution or the concept of rule of law.” Furthermore, “he never accepted the fact that he was not the most powerful man in the world, and by power I mean the ability to do whatever he wanted when he wanted.”
For Timothy Snydera leading historian of 1930s and 1940s Europe, fascism is “a cult of will over reason; It is life inside a Big Lie; a transformation of politics into a cult of a leader who tells a Big Lie and who is able to establish himself as the person whose will must dominate society.” To this, add Anne Applebaumanother well-known expert, Trump describes his opponents as “vermin,” another characteristic of fascist (and Stalinist) rhetoric. The recent “blood libels” about Haitians as pet consumers fit into the fascist denigration of some people as subhuman.
The mistakes that the administration made Biden help explain the popularity of trumpparticularly its failure to control immigration. Still, it is difficult to understand the abandonment of the basic principles of the great experiment in republican government. Much of the success is due to the precedents created by George Washington. As pointed out Tom Nichols in AtlanticWashington was president for two terms and then went home. Trump is the anti-Washington. If Washington was famous for his probity, Trump is known for the opposite.
