We are days away from learning who will replace Joe Biden and become the 47th president of the United States. British observers should be praying that it’s not Donald J Trump. No matter how fervently Liz Truss or Nigel Farage insist that Trump is a great friend of Britain and would hold our hand through these difficult times, evidence suggests this is lunacy.
First, look at what Trump proposes on matters that would directly and immediately affect the UK. His threats of dramatic tariffs would be catastrophic for exporters selling into the US. Even if Trump were to carve out exemptions for his pals in Britain – and he’s shown no intention of doing so – we would still be part of a global supply chain strangled by Trump’s trade vandalism. Unlike during his first presidency, Britain is now fully out of the EU, meaning we can no longer take shelter from a Trump-induced storm within the single market, a trading bloc sufficiently large that it could provide some protection.
Then there’s global affairs. Trump has not outlined his plan to end the wars in Ukraine or the Middle East. It doesn’t sound like he will sit around a table with his Nato allies before pressing ahead with whatever he decides. Given the money and political investment we have put into these crises, an impatient decision by Trump to upend them would be embarrassing and potentially create economic, migration, and security problems in Europe that wouldn’t impact America in the same way.
Those are just two things Trump could do to make life difficult for Britain on day one. But why focus on hypotheticals when Trump’s first presidency offers so many examples of how bad a friend to Britain he is?
Trump 1.0 loved interfering with British politics, possibly because he identified a degree of ideological parity between his Maga movement and Brexit. Whether it was unsolicited, terrible advice, or empty promises to his British allies, Trump’s interventions were seldom statesmanlike and often served as absurd, impossible to realise distractions.
Take the time in 2018 when he told Theresa May to sue the EU over Brexit, rather than negotiate a settled exit from the bloc. It was an absurd piece of advice for multiple reasons. It’s not clear exactly what the UK could have sued the EU for, given Brexit was an act initiated unilaterally by the UK. Knowing this, and knowing that the EU has armies of lawyers and wheelbarrows full of cash, would have made it one of the silliest acts of aggression in the history of all foreign policy.
Ignoring how ridiculous the suggestion itself was, what really harmed May was Trump telling a tabloid journalist about the piece of advice, lobbing a grenade into what were already fraught negotiations with Brussels. Officials on both sides privately say it actively harmed the negotiations at a difficult moment.
Trump also constantly dangled the carrot of a US-UK trade deal. Thousands of words could be written about why one is not on the cards, regardless of who resides in Downing Street or the White House. In short: the DC position, which is bipartisan, is that the UK would have to allow US drug companies to question any pharmaceutical deals the UK does. That would drive up drug prices, and have a knock-on effect on all healthcare. No British PM, be they Tory, Labour, or even party-of-the-people Reform, could countenance that.
Trump also revelled in creating problems between Britain and its allies. When he pulled out of international treaties like the Paris Climate Accord or the Iran Nuclear Deal, he drew lines in the sand: Trump on one side, everyone else on the other. Yes, the US is Britain’s most important global partner, but we need to balance that relationship with other allies. We are not in a position to go all in on America if Trump and his forced binaries end up in the White House again.
Trump’s black-and-white view of the world is important for allies. It means any exchange with him can be boiled down to a zero-sum calculation. Any special deals he bestows can be revoked after a perceived sleight. Any crumbs from the king’s table could be stamped on if he decides it’s in his interest to watch us starve.
Those who suggest Trump is a great friend to Britain and say that his return to office would be an opportunity for us are either stupid or lying. Every shred of evidence suggests his erratic personality is as much a danger to the UK as it is to the rest of the world, no matter how much he claims to love us.