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Friday, November 1, 2024

How the US election will play out, hour by hour

On Tuesday, 5 November, Americans will head to the polls in the 2024 presidential election.

The race which will see Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris running against former president Donald Trump is set to break records with voter turnout, driven by an increase in early and mail-in voting, alongside traditional in-person voting.

Results will trickle in state by state with some declaring much quicker than others, while certain swing states can heavily impact who wins the race to the White House.

This hour-by-hour guide will walk you through election day, from early-morning lines at polling stations to late-night counts in swing states.

6am – 9am EST (10am – 1pm GMT)

Around this time early voting will kick off as polls open across the East Coast. In key states like Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, there is expected to be early lines as voters aim to cast their ballots before work.

States important to the election, including swing states open for in-person voting, often have early voter turnout spikes.

Given mail-in and early voting trends, around this time, morning turnout may give some clues about the enthusiasm among in-person voters.

9am – 12pm EST (1pm – 4pm GMT)

Polling stations across the Central time zone start opening, with attention shifting to battleground states like Michigan and Wisconsion.

Around this stage, election officials monitor for issues such as long lines or machine malfunctions, which could affect voter access.

Analysts will look for early signals on turnout among key voting blocs, including younger voters and communities of colour – both of which play a big role in swing states.

12pm – 3pm EST (4pm – 7pm GMT)

Around this time there may be a surge of voters as they take advantage of their lunch breaks which could lead to longer lines, especially in high-population areas.

States like Michigan and Arizona may report midday turnout updates.

Preliminary exit poll data may begin trickling in around this stage, giving an idea on voter priorities – such as economy, healthcare or climate policy.

3pm – 6pm EST (7pm – 10pm GMT)

Polls in eastern states start now preparing for evening closings, and afternoon updates may give a fuller picture of turnout.

Turnout trends in urban vs rural areas of key states like Georgia and Ohio could hint at possible election outcomes.

Exit polls may show which issues and candidate qualities are resonating with different demographics, however these are also preliminary results.

6pm – 9pm EST (10pm – 1am GMT)

Some counties in Indiana and Kentucky will be among the first to close their polls doing so from 6pm Eastern Time (10pm UK time).

Polls at this time begin closing in states like Georgia, Virginia, and most of Florida by 7pm (EST), with early results from these states starting to come in.

With polls closed, initial counts in the east, including battleground states, may reveal how the race is leaning. While the results are not final, they start shaping the narrative for the night.

Voting continues in the West, including in large states like California, where polls won’t close until 8pm PST (11pm EST).

9pm – 12am EST (1am – 4am GMT)

Key states in the east and Midwest will continue to report results as votes are counted around this time.

Early forecasts and results from Indiana and Kentucky, the majority of which could come in before midnight, will therefore present some of the first indications as to the level of support for the former president compared to the Vice President.

Results from competitive states such as North Carolina, Florida and Texas will be closely watched and if any swing state reports decisive results, it could be an early indicator of the overall race direction.

News networks may start making their projections in some states based on early returns, though close races will likely remain uncalled until more votes are counted.

12am – 3am EST (4am – 7am GMT)

Polls on the West Coast, including California, Washington, and Oregon, close by 11pm EST. Returns from these states, while less competitive, will still contribute a large amount to the electoral college tally.

In states like Arizona and Nevada, counting will continue into the night.

Depending on how close key races are, a projected winner may emerge, or if margins are tight, results could remain undecided until all mail-in and provisional ballots are counted.

3am – 6am EST ( 7am – 10am GMT)

In critical states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, counting may continue into the early morning hours.

Late-arriving ballots, including mail-in votes received by election deadlines, could influence final tallies.

In cases where margins are exceptionally close, a recount may be requested or automatically triggered, especially in highly competitive states.

By early morning, a winner may be projected, but the outcome may also remain uncertain if key states are too close to call or still counting ballots.

What happens after election night?

While it’s possible that we find out the result of the presidential election by the morning of 6 November, recent history and the closeness of this contest so far suggest the world may be kept waiting for up to a few days for every state’s votes to be reported.

After election night, the outcome of the US election may remain unresolved if the race is too close to call in key battleground states or if significant numbers of absentee and mail-in ballots remain uncounted.

In 2020, for example, election day was 3 November but it took nearly four days for all votes across the country to be counted. With the race close and neither candidate having passed the mark of 270 electoral college votes, it meant Joe Biden did not declare victory until 7 November, after the pivotal Pennsylvania results had been announced.

By contrast, the 2016 result was called in favour of Trump in the early hours of the morning after election day.

Reasoning for a delay in results could be if the margin in any key state is exceptionally close. A recount could also be triggered as many states have laws requiring recounts if the margin is within a certain percentage – typically 0.5 per cent or less.

In a very tight race, candidates may also challenge the results in court if there are disputes over ballot validity or counting methods which can make the process stretch out for days to weeks.

If any of the following happens, states aim to complete counting, recounts and resolve any disputes by early December to ensure their electoral votes count.

Electors meet mid-December to formally cast their votes, which Congress then counts in January, officially deciding the winner.

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