An Israeli couple has been arrested on suspicion of spying for Iran after allegedly trying to hire an assassin, the latest in a series of apparent Iranian plots on Israeli soil that add a new dimension to the long-running conflict.
The suspects carried out surveillance tasks on sensitive sites, including the headquarters of Israel’s spy agency, Mossad, security officials said.
One of their assignments was to monitor an academic at the military think-tank the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), who was “marked as an assassination target”, according to Israeli police.
The INSS released a statement expressing “deep gratitude to the Israeli Security Agency for preventing an attack against one of its employees”.
The incident follows the bust of an alleged spy ring last Friday, when seven residents of northern Israel were charged with aiding Iran after providing photos and other information on potential targets, including civilian sites and military bases.
The suspects are all residents of Israel who emigrated from Azerbaijan, including a soldier who deserted the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), as well as two teenagers. They performed around 600 missions over two years, Israeli officials said.
Noam Ostfeld, of the geopolitical risk consultancy Sibylline, told i: “Most of the arrests are from Iran trying to recruit spies from within marginalised communities inside Israel, people who feel like they are not a part of society.”
“In the case of Azerbaijan spies, [some] came to Israel 30 years ago, but they may have still felt like outsiders, these tensions can exist in Israel in a way.”
Iran was likely to be targeting potential recruits on social media, Mr Ostfield said, playing on specific grievances of different groups.
Cash also appears to have been a motivation. The seven alleged spies arrested last week were collectively paid $300,000 (£232,972), according to Israel. Recruits also allegedly received smaller payments for specific tasks such as setting cars on fire and placing banners in Jerusalem calling for the release of hostages held in Gaza.
Iran has not commented officially on the spy cases, although state-owned Press TV reported Israel’s allegations.
Dr Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi, a scholar of Iranian politics and history at the University of York, suggested the recruitment of Israeli assets marked “another large chink in the armour of their storied intelligence services”, noting “there’s no telling how much information they passed along before they were caught.”
Professor Kobi Michael, a senior researcher and security analyst at INSS – the institute allegedly targeted by Iran – believes Tehran would have gleaned relatively little value from low-level sources.
“[The spies] are not people who are able to do something serious,” he said. “They can provide the Iranians with some photos with regard to some locations that the Iranians have some interest in, they can make some kind of sabotage…but they are not people with influence.”
Dr Michael suggested Tehran had expectations that were “disconnected from reality” such as expecting their recruits to facilitate assassinations of Israeli leaders and top security officials. Israeli agencies proved capable of neutralising the threat, and will have learned more about the enemy, he added.
“They were following all of these people for more than two years, in a way that enabled the security service to discover the modus operandi of the Iranians, like: ‘Who are the people that recruit other people? What are the means that Iranians use?’”
“The Iranian do not have success on the Israeli scale of spying in Iran,” he noted.
Israel has been able to carry out numerous operations in Iran in recent years that were thought to rely on human intelligence sources, such as assassinations of nuclear scientists, and the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.
Undercover Iranian security agents typically approach potential recruits online, Dr Michael said, asking them to do “simple tasks” before raising the bar to spying missions or assassination plots.
Israel’s Shin Bet security agency claims that individuals affiliated with Iranian security services have contacted Israelis on social media platforms in recent months, including X, Telegram, WhatsApp, Facebook and Instagram.
Shin Bet said the operatives posed as estate agents, people requesting photo shoots, people interested in online dating, and people looking for private investigators.
Dr Michael acknowledged that Iran’s escalating espionage would be a concern for Israel’s security services, particularly coming at a time of war on multiple fronts. He added that INSS staff were taking extra precautions following the alleged plot targeting an employee.
“We are well secured,” he said. “Most of the people in INSS are people from the security establishment. They have the right instincts. We take all the required measures in order to make life much harder for Iran and their attempts to attack us – until now, they have not succeeded.”
Yaakov Amidror, an Israeli former major general and national security adviser, was uncertain whether Israel’s security agencies had the Iranian threat under control, but believed they remained a step ahead of their counterparts.
“Do you know about many Israeli spies that have been exposed by the Iranians? I don’t,” he said.