Labour voters have welcomed higher spending on public services in the Budget but hit out at the scrapping of the £2 bus cap and called for more help for the poorest Britons.
A snap focus group of more than 100 people who backed Sir Keir Starmer’s party at the general election found that most regard the Budget as a “good start” by the Government.
Respondents in the group, run by JL Partners on behalf of campaign group 38 Degrees, suggested they were still concerned about the rising cost of living despite a sharp fall in inflation and wanted ministers to do more to tackle it.
The Budget featured £40bn of tax rises, mostly focussed on businesses, and an extra £30bn of borrowing with the money raised spent on inflation-busting increases to public spending and long-term investment.
But Labour voters appear to be unhappy with the decision to replace the £2 cap on bus fares with a new cap of £3, which the Government says was unavoidable because the Conservatives had not funded the continuation of the original policy.
A 29-year-old man in the focus group said: “Scrapping the £2 bus fare cap is a disgraceful decision that will harm the poorest in society, and discourage public transport at a time when it is needed more than ever. Working people need to get to work, nobody chooses the bus. You’re on a bus because you have to be!”
A 33-year-old customer service worker added: “The people who take the bus are less likely to be well off because they don’t have a car. Why punish them?” And a 26-year-old said: “They’re taking away from the poorest of people again.”
Another respondent, a 37-year-old female teacher, criticised the decision not to scrap the two-child benefit cap.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the bus fare change in the days before the Budget. He argued that the funding for the £2 cap – introduced by the Tory government – was due to run out at the end of the year and that Labour would keep the cap – but raise it by 50 per cent.
“The Tories only funded [the £2 fare cap] until the end of 2024, and therefore that is the end of the funding in relation to the £2 bus fare,” he said on Monday.
“I do know that this matters, particularly in rural buses, and that’s why I’m able to say to you this morning that in the budget, we will announce there’ll be a £3 cap on bus fares until the end of 2025, because I know how important it is. So that’ll be there in the budget on Wednesday.”
The government has argued that it needs to fill a £22bn funding gap left by the Tories – something the previous government denies – and overall Rachel Reeves raised taxation by £40bn, the most in a budget since 1993.
Asked whether they felt the Budget had addressed their personal concerns about money, 31 per cent said it did and 35 per cent disagreed with the rest on the fence. A 34-year-old administrator praised the rise in the minimum wage and added: “As a working mother, there will be help for childcare.”
An IT manager said: “This national minimum wage going up is great, and the national insurance contributions by employers not employees is a good thing. The investment into the NHS is much needed and Rachel Reeves has done an excellent job with trying to get us back in track.”
But a 70-year-old woman warned: “There isn’t anything substantial to help with the cost of living. Nothing for poorer pensioners.” Another, younger respondent said: “They need to address what really matters to the UK, rising prices on everything where people can’t afford to eat decently.”
A £22.6bn uplift to the NHS budget was almost universally welcomed, with a 41-year-old man calling the cash boost “vital” and another person saying that “the money needs to be spent where it’s needed most”. Others warned that the extra funding on its own would not be enough to help the health service in the long term – one response said: “It won’t make much difference… It is better systems which are needed.” Several of the voters said that while they were pleased with the decision to increase tax and spending, they wished that the Government would be bolder.
Tom Lubbock of JL Partners said: “Overall, Labour voters in our panel gave the Budget a mixed report card. The positive praise that was handed out for the increase to the national living wage and £22.6bn for the NHS was offset by concerns that the cost of living crisis is still there and wasn’t addressed.
“The problem that Rachel Reeves faces is that even though the Government has changed, the responses from our panel show that there is still widespread concern about cost of living issues amongst their own Labour voters.”
In the period between the general election and the Budget, Labour has seen its poll ratings slump. Ministers argue that they are taking difficult decisions which will pay off in the long term.
Labour voters think ‘more could be done’
By Matthew McGregor, CEO at 38 Degrees
“It’s a good start, but there is definitely more that could be done.” In a nutshell, this quote, from a 38-year-old sales assistant, sums up the response to the budget from those who voted Labour at July’s election. It’s a direct quote from a rapid response voter panel that pollsters JL Partners carried out immediately after Rachel Reeves’s first Budget speech yesterday, on behalf of our organisation, 38 Degrees.
The issues these voters zoomed in on, and reacted most strongly to, were the NHS and cost of living. That comes as little surprise to us. In the months both leading up to and since the election, these issues have been a priority for both the general public – and the 38 Degrees community of over one million people, who live in every constituency across the country.
The outpouring of support and love for our NHS in this research was as affirming as it was unsurprising, and summed up by the panel member who said it’s “vital that the NHS gets more money as they do a brilliant job”. But tales of painful personal NHS waits also abounded, underlining how urgent it is that the Government fixes the NHS.
The “best news in 14 years” was the way one voter described the 6.7 per cent rise to the national minimum wage, a move that garnered widespread support from the panel – alongside disappointment about the lack of tangible immediate help with the cost of living for most people. Whilst breakfast club expansions are welcomed, as one panel member put it, “breakfast clubs wouldn’t be necessary if working people had enough money to feed their children”.
And, it’s not all good news for Rachel Reeves. As if the months of backlash to winter fuel allowance being scrapped for all but the very very poorest pensioners haven’t already been painful enough for the Chancellor, the news that bus fares are set to go up by 50 per cent sparked anger amongst our panel, who branded it a “disgraceful decision”. Both decisions hit voters in the pocket at a time when they’re already hurting, and seem unfair to most people.
The Labour voters in this snap panel voted for change. They voted for help with the cost of living. They voted to save the NHS. They were promised that those with the broadest shoulders would pay to fix public services, and moves to put up taxes on the ultra-wealthy are a popular move – but for our panel, don’t go far enough just yet. As one said, “I think they are making positive steps but they could be less tepid and make bigger changes.”
As the Labour voters participating in our research said themselves, this Budget is a start. Now Labour will need to deliver on the promises of this budget if they want to keep these voters on side through this parliament and into the next election.