As the US presidential election approaches, attention is turning to key swing states that could ultimately decide the outcome between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
These battlegrounds, where votes have historically been close, include states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona.
Under the electoral college system, each state has a certain number of “electors” based on population.
With candidates needing 270 of the 538 electoral votes to win, elections tend to be decided in the “swing states”.
Each state’s results announcement schedule may provide early indicators of the overall race.
Here’s a closer look at the states to watch and the outcomes that are expected.
Pennsylvania – 19 votes
Pennsylvania was once a reliable state for Democrats until it broke its streak in 2016 when it voted for Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Trump had a narrow win by around a 44,000-vote majority (0.7 per cent), until the state flipped back to the Democrats in 2020.
It voted Joe Biden in, who won by approximately 80,000 more votes (1.2 per cent).
With cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the state has been hit for decades with a steady decline of its industrial manufacturing base.
Trump and Harris have campaigned repeatedly in the state, where the pair held their only presidential debate.
According to poll trackers, Trump leads in the state where he survived an assassination attempt at a July rally.
If he wins, Trump is courting the rural white population and warning that migrants are overwhelming small towns while Harris mentioned recent infrastructure wins and outlined plans to invest $100bn in manufacturing – a key issue for residents in Pittsburgh.
On election day, polls close at 8pm ET but the state may have delayed results due to rules stating that mail-in ballots cannot be processed until 7am on the day, leading to expected delays.
Georgia – 16 votes
Georgia was known to consistently back Republican candidates, particularly in suburban areas around Atlanta until a historic shift in 2020 when they voted for Biden.
This was the first Democrat they voted in nearly 30 years as Biden won by a razor-thin margin of around 12,000 votes (0.2 per cent).
Prosecutors in Georgia indicted Trump in an election interference case after he called state officials urging them to “find” enough votes to overturn Biden’s 2020 victory.
It is assumed that demographic changes in the state are likely to benefit Harris, who has courted minority voters across Georgia.
Polls in Georgia close at 7pm ET.
North Carolina – 16 votes
From 2008, despite usually shifting toward the Republican Party, Democrat Barack Obama narrowly won North Carolina due to a strong turnout among black voters, young voters and newcomers in urban areas like Charlotte, Raleigh, and Durham.
However, they returned to the Republican column in 2012 and maintained this preference through to 2020, where they voted for Trump.
The population in the state is now over 10 million, naturally growing its diversity which benefits Democrats.
Trump may have complicated matters following a scandal involving the state’s Republican gubernatorial candidate and infuriating party officials who worry it could sink Trump.
In North Carolina, they are aiming to report nearly all (90 per cent) of its votes by midnight on election day, with polls closing at 7.30pm ET.
Michigan – 15 votes
Michigan which has a large working-class population, seemingly voted Democratic candidates such as Bill Clinton and Obama in consistently until 2016 when Trump won by a narrow margin of just over 10,000 votes (0.2 per cent).
This marked the first time Michigan had gone Republican since 1998, however it flipped back to Democrats in 2020, with Biden winning by about 150,000 votes due to support from unionised workers and the state’s large black community.
However, this time, Harris risks losing the support of a 200,000 strong Arab-American community that has denounced Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
This will be the first time the state offers early voting during a presidential election, which officials hope will ease lines on election day with polls closing at 8pm ET.
Arizona – 11 votes
In a major shift in 2020 Arizona voted for a Democratic presidential candidate, Biden, for the first time since 1996.
Biden’s narrow victory reflected a strong turnout among young, Latino, Native American, and suburban voters in Maricopa County, which helped to swing the state.
Reports state that Trump hopes frustrations over the Biden-Harris administration’s immigration policy will swing Arizona, which shares a border with Mexico, back in his favour.
Harris visited Arizona’s border in September vowing to crack down on migration and work on reviving last year’s bipartisan border bill, which she said Trump “tanked” for political purposes.
Arizona’s high volume of early ballots dropped off on election day has historically delayed final results which is likely to happen again this year as their polls close at 9pm ET.
Wisconsin – 10 votes
Wisconsin, with its mix of working-class and rural communities, traditionally leaned Democratic, supporting candidates like Clinton and Obama.
However, in 2016, Trump won the state by a slim margin of about 22,000 votes (0.7 per cent), marking the first Republican victory in Wisconsin since 1984.
In 2020, the state shifted back to the Democrats, with Biden winning by approximately 20,000 votes, supported by high turnout in urban areas like Milwaukee, and renewed support among suburban and unionised voters.
Trump considers the state winnable and his party held its summer national convention there, however polls show Harris in the lead.
The state expects delays in results due to absentee ballot procedures and close races with polls closing at 9pm ET.
Nevada – 6 votes
Nevada, known for its diverse population and strong union presence, leaned Democratic in recent decades, backing candidates like Clinton, Obama, and Hillary Clinton in every election since 2004.
In 2020, Nevada remained in the Democratic column, with Biden winning by a slim margin of around 2.4 per cent, due to strong turnout in urban centers like Las Vegas and Reno.
Now, Rpeublicans, buoyed by Trump’s headway with Hispanic voters, are convinced they can flip the script.
However, within weeks of becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris erased that advantage in the western state by promoting her economic plans to help small businesses and combat inflation.
Nevada allows mail-in ballots postmarked by election day to be counted up to four days after, which may delay final results with polls closing at 10pm ET.