As the US election nears its conclusion, Donald Trump is entering the final phase of his years-long campaign to cast doubt on the results.
Since he first ran for president in 2015, the Republican candidate and former president has often claimed that the only way he could lose is if the election were rigged against him.
Now, after nine years of baseless claims and conspiracy theories, Trump’s strategy is about to face its biggest test.
The difference from 2020 is that Trump’s supporters have had four years to entrench their beliefs and prepare their response as the results begin to come in.
Election denialism has now become central among Trump supporters. Given that polls indicate this year’s election may be closer than the previous one, it creates a deeply worrying landscape.
In recent days, Trump has focused on Pennsylvania, a key swing state that he and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris consider essential to winning the White House.
On social media, Trump alluded to police investigating allegedly fraudulent voter registrations in two counties in Pennsylvania, though no evidence suggests they will lead to illegal votes.
Nevertheless, Trump declared, “We caught them CHEATING BIG in Pennsylvania” and called for the culprits to be prosecuted.
Few Trump speeches go by without an unfounded claim that he has been treated unfairly. Speaking in Wisconsin on Wednesday, he said, “We’re going to have a big victory,” adding that he could only lose “if it was a corrupt election.”
On other occasions, Trump has stated he will accept the election results only if they are not “rigged.”
This perspective has filtered down to the grassroots level of the Republican campaign, where party canvassers are in the unusual position of telling supporters that Trump lost in 2020 due to fraud but that voting is crucial to prevent Ms Harris from becoming President.
Despite this, election denialism remains a primary motivation for many Republicans in this election.
In recent interviews, members of the Republican Party in Maricopa County, Arizona – the most populous county in the state – shared how they are volunteering 50 hours a week for Mr Trump because they believe the 2020 election was rigged.
Mr Trump’s strategy is based on the notion that if he loses, he can deflect responsibility by blaming others, which also enables him to position himself as a victim, fuelling his grievance-driven rhetoric.
As losses mount – including the 2020 election, various abortion votes, and failed Senate candidates – this creates a self-reinforcing narrative that allows Trump to claim the system is rigged against him.
The cost has been a significant erosion of public trust in elections, even though the claims of fraud lack evidence.
In 2024, Trump is bolstered by his wealthiest supporter, Elon Musk, who, according to Bloomberg News, is now a leading promoter of anti-immigrant conspiracy theories on X, the social network he owns.
Mr Musk’s America PAC created an “Election Integrity Community” on X, which has 50,000 members and has become a hotbed of unfounded claims about voter fraud.
Some Trump supporters are even eyeing January 6, 2025 – the anniversary of the US Capitol riot – with anticipation. CNN reports that Ivan Raiklin, a former green beret and political operative close to Trump’s associates, told a group of Pennsylvania activists last month that he had a “plan and a strategy” for this election, adding that “January 6th is going to be pretty fun.”
While many view Mr Trump’s appointments to the US Supreme Court as his most enduring legacy – notably, its decision to overturn the law guaranteeing a woman’s right to an abortion – his approach to eroding trust in elections may ultimately prove more damaging.