Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Actress in a Leading Role
‘The Outrun’
Biarritz Nouvelles Vagues Festival
Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 10, 2024): Are we headed towards a battle of previous Oscar winners, or will “overdue” narratives emerge?
The best actress race is heating up, and it’s already looking like a fierce competition with Angelina Jolie charging out of the gate. In Pablo Larraín’s melodic biopic “Maria,” Jolie delivers a transformative portrayal of the famed opera singer, filled with raw emotional depth. Her performance has left audiences and critics buzzing, putting her in a prime position for a second Academy Award. But don’t think this race is over yet, because it’s only October. Anything can change.
Hot on her heels is Tilda Swinton in Pedro Almodóvar’s melodrama “The Room Next Door,” with a career-defining, cerebral performance that’s as mysterious as it is fearless. Swinton’s work as a woman dying of cancer could easily catch fire with Academy voters looking for something unconventional and ultimately, unforgettable.
But it can’t be that easy this early.
Mikey Madison has entered the conversation with a breakout performance in Sean Baker’s popular dramedy “Anora.” As the youngest contender this year, Madison brings a raw vulnerability to her stark-marking performance that could resonate with younger Academy members. With momentum building for the film, don’t be surprised if she can position herself as a dark horse candidate in the race.
Meanwhile, Saoirse Ronan continues to impress, delivering a double-threat this season. Her work in Nora Fingscheidt’s deeply personal “The Outrun” shows a perfect balance of fragility and strength, and with her supporting role in Steve McQueen’s “Blitz” also in the mix, she could make history as the youngest double nominee in Oscar history.
Speaking of history, Karla Sofía Gascón from Jacques Audiard’s crime musical “Emilia Pérez” brings both representation and a depth of talent to the race. Gascón’s groundbreaking turn could make her the first trans woman to be nominated for an acting Oscar.
But the lineup is shaping up unpredictable, with lots of love out there for Fernanda Torres’ remarkable work in the Brazilian drama “I’m Still Here” and Oscar-nominee Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who delivered the best performance of her career in Mike Leigh’s perfectly executed character drama “Hard Truths.”
Then we still have Cynthia Erivo from Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked” waiting in the wings of the season, and we could shake things up. Early word is positive for her performance so far.
The updated best actress prediction charts are below.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
Image Credit: Courtesy of Sundance Film Festival And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer & Film 1 Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (Netflix) 2 Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) 3 Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon) 4 Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics) 5 Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) 
Image Credit: Universal Next in Line
Rank Performer & Film 6 Fernanda Torres — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics) 7 Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures) 8 Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl” (A24) 9 Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi) 10 Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street) Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Image Credit: David Bolen Other Contenders
Rank Performer & Film 11 June Squibb — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures) 12 Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM Studios) 13 Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) 14 Kirsten Dunst — “Civil War” (A24) 15 Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures) 16 Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) 17 Lily Gladstone — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films) 18 Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24) 19 Kate Winslet — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions) 20 Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures) Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett C Also In Contention
Rank Performer & Film 21 Emma Stone — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures) 22 Regina King — “Shirley” (Netflix) 23 Kani Kusruti — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow) 24 Julianne Nicholson — “Janet Planet” (A24) 25 Daisy Ridley — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures) 26 Ryan Destiny — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM) 27 Kerry Washington — “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) 28 Vic Carmen Sonne — “The Girl With the Needle” (Mubi) 29 Anya Taylor-Joy — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.) 30 Lily Collias — “Good One” (Metrograph Pictures) Oscars: Best Actress in a Leading Role (Variety Awards Circuit Predictions) Eligible Performers (Best Actress)
Image Credit: Netflix This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.
** denotes could open in 2025 or compete in another category.
- Kani Kusruti — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- Divya Prabha — “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)
- Mikey Madison — “Anora” (Neon)
- Nicole Kidman — “Babygirl” (A24)
- Marisa Abela — “Back to Black” (Focus Features)
- Jenna Ortega — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Winona Ryder — “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
- Jodie Comer — “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features) **
- Felicity Jones — “The Brutalist” (A24) **
- Zendaya — “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)
- Kirsten Dunst — “Civil War” (A24)
- Vicky Krieps — “The Dead Don’t Hurt” (Shout! Studios)
- Andra Day — “The Deliverance” (Netflix)
- Margaret Qualley — “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)
- Karla Sofía Gascón — “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
- Moses Ingram — “The End” (Neon) **
- Tilda Swinton — “The End” (Neon) **
- Lily Gladstone — “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)
- Ryan Destiny — “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)
- Alicia Vikander — “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)
- Brandy Norwood — “The Front Room” (A24)
- Anya Taylor-Joy — “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)
- Lily Collias — “Good One” (Metrograph Pictures)
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste — “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)
- Robin Wright — “Here” (Sony Pictures) **
- Adria Arjona — “Hit Man” (Netflix) **
- Anne Hathaway — “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM)
- Fernanda Torres — “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Blake Lively — “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures)
- Julianne Nicholson — “Janet Planet” (A24)
- Lady Gaga — “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.) **
- Emma Stone — “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Pamela Anderson — “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)
- Kate Winslet — “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)
- Kristen Stewart — “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)
- Angelina Jolie — “Maria” (Netflix)
- Nathalie Emmanuel — “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate) **
- Jessica Chastain — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Anne Hathaway — “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon) **
- Aubrey Plaza — “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)
- Amy Adams — “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)
- Lily-Rose Depp — “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)
- Saoirse Ronan — “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Celeste Dalla Porta — “Parthenope” (A24)
- Stefania Sandrelli — “Parthenope” (A24)
- Julianne Moore — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Tilda Swinton — “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Riley Keough — “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)
- Kerry Washington — “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)
- Regina King — “Shirley” (Netflix)
- Carey Mulligan — “Spaceman” (Netflix) **
- Demi Moore — “The Substance” (Mubi)
- June Squibb — “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)
- Julia Louis-Dreyfus — “Tuesday” (A24)
- Florence Pugh — “We Live in Time” (A24)
- Cynthia Erivo — “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
- Jessie Buckley — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- Olivia Colman — “Wicked Little Letters” (Sony Pictures Classics) **
- Lupita Nyong’o — “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
- Maya Hawke — “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Pictures)
- Anna Kendrick — “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)
- Daisy Ridley — “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)
More Information (Oscars: Best Actress)
Image Credit: Variety via Getty Images 2024 category winner: Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)
2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline – Full awards season calendar here
- Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024
- General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024
- Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024
- Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024
- Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024
- Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.
- Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.
- Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025
- Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025
- Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT
- Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT
- Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025
- 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025
Oscars Prediction Categories
2024 Oscar Predictions (Variety Awards Circuit) About the Academy Awards
The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.
