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Saturday, October 5, 2024

Jarren Duran far exceeded expectations

The regular season may be over, but report card season is just getting started. Friday we handed out grades for the Red Sox infielders, and today we cover the outfielders, who collectively posted some of the highest marks on the team.

Red Sox Report Card: Rafael Devers’ late struggles pulls down final grade

Jarren Duran, A

Two years ago if you’d suggested Duran would one day put together a season like this, people would have called you crazy. Yet for all the struggles he endured his first two seasons in the majors, Duran has emerged as legitimately one of the best players in the league.

This season Duran posted historic numbers, becoming the first player in MLB history to record 40 doubles, 30 stolen bases, 20 home runs and 10 triples in a season (Bobby Witt Jr. became the second later in the year). He finished with 8.7 wins above replacement, making him the ninth Red Sox position player to post a WAR that high in franchise history, and not only did he earn his first career All-Star nod, he took home All-Star MVP.

He was outstanding defensively, was a terror on the base paths and took the field just about every day, playing 160 out of 162 games. The one black mark on Duran’s season was the August incident in which he directed a homophobic remark at a fan mid-game and earned himself a two-game suspension.

Ceddanne Rafaela: B+

Originally it wasn’t a guarantee Rafaela would even make the Opening Day roster, but by season’s end he wound up playing in more games than anyone on the team other than Duran. Rafaela emerged as a crucial piece for the Red Sox as a rookie, providing elite defense in center field while holding down the fort at shortstop after Trevor Story went down with his fractured shoulder. He is the first MLB player since 1901 to start 60 or more games at both positions in the same season and should be a heavy favorite to earn the American League’s utility Gold Glove in the coming weeks.

Offensively, Rafaela primary batted at the bottom of the order, but he still made an impact despite the glaring flaws in his game. He hit 15 home runs, tallied 75 RBI, stole 19 bases and batted .246, all of which ranked among the best in the league among AL rookies. The problem, as has been the case throughout his professional career, is his sky-high chase rate (46.4%) and abysmal walk rate (2.6%), both of which ranked bottom 1% in MLB. He needs to improve in those areas, but even with the warts in his game Rafaela still showed he can be a valuable contributor at the big league level.

Wilyer Abreu: B+

Never regarded as a top prospect during his time in the minors, Abreu has blossomed into a rock solid MLB player who does a lot of things well and doesn’t have many glaring weaknesses. Abreu finished second among AL rookies with 3.5 WAR while batting .253 with 15 home runs, 58 RBI, eight stolen bases and a .781 OPS. He also emerged as one of the best defensive right fielders in baseball, tallying 18 defensive runs saved to rank fourth in MLB across all positions according to FanGraphs. The one thing Abreu doesn’t do yet is hit lefties, but with time and experience he’s shown signs he can develop into an everyday mainstay.

Tyler O’Neill: A-

Coming into the year O’Neill had a very interesting resume with a lot of red flags. He was a two-time Gold Glove winner who once hit 34 home runs, but he’d also frequently battled injuries and only played more than 100 games in a season once through his first six years in the majors. Which guy were the Red Sox going to get? In the end O’Neill did grind through several injuries but was still able to deliver a highly impactful season, hitting 31 home runs in 113 games while emerging as a badly needed right-handed power threat. His defense maybe wasn’t quite Gold Glove caliber, but O’Neill’s season was pretty close to a best-case scenario for Boston.

Masataka Yoshida: D+

Signed for five years, $90 million ahead of the 2023 season, the hope was Yoshida could become a mainstay in the Red Sox lineup and outfield for years to come. Instead, Yoshida has proven himself a capable but highly limited player. This season Yoshida was relegated to full-time designated hitter duty, and when others like Rafael Devers or Tyler O’Neill needed to DH while working their way back from injuries Yoshida often found himself consigned to the bench. His production was also limited by thumb and shoulder injuries, and while his final numbers were respectable — he batted .280 with 10 home runs, 56 RBI and a .765 OPS — he couldn’t hit lefties and was at times deployed as a highly paid platoon bat. Relative to expectations, Yoshida’s sophomore season was a big disappointment.

Rob Refsnyder: A-

Refsnyder’s job is to come off the bench and crush left-handed pitching, and he does that job about as well as anyone in the big leagues. The reserve outfielder was once again a star in his role, batting .283 with 11 home runs, 40 RBI and an .830 OPS in 93 games. He also batted .302 with a .941 OPS against lefties, and in addition to his contributions on the field he also solidified his place as a veteran clubhouse leader. Though Refsnyder indicated he’d been considering retirement, all signs point to the 33-year-old being back for his fourth season in Boston next year.

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