Tropical Depression 14 formed in the Gulf of Mexico Saturday morning and is likely to rapidly strengthen into an “intense hurricane” that will begin to impact Florida late this weekend and into next week, bringing torrential downpours and damaging winds, the National Hurricane Center said.
“Regardless of the exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast of the Florida Peninsula next week,” forecasters said Saturday morning.
Forecasters warned residents from the Panhandle to the Keys to watch the progress of the storm closely.
If it becomes a named storm, it would be Milton. Here’s the latest forecast track.
Meanwhile, another area of low pressure near the Florida peninsula is likely to bring heavy and prolonged rainfall to South Florida starting late Sunday through Monday.
Tropical Depression 14 is moving north-northeastward and is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so, forecasters said in an 11 a.m. advisory. By Tuesday, the system is expected to speed up, and it should reach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.
Conditions will allow for “steady to rapid strengthening over the next few days,” forecasters wrote. “The intensification is likely to be slower during the next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated.”
The hurricane center will now begin tracking the system. Various forecast models — known as “spaghetti models” — are showing the path hitting Florida’s west coast and moving east across the peninsula.
A stronger, slower storm would likely hit further north; a faster, weaker storm would hit further south, the models show.
“Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, locally heavy rains could occur … over much of Florida late this weekend through the middle of next week,” National Hurricane Center forecasters said. “In addition, increasing winds and building seas are also forecast.”
The system is carrying a large amount of moisture and will drench parts of Florida with as much as a foot of rainfall, Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross wrote on his blog, Hurricane Intel, on Friday.
“Whatever shape the system takes, an extended period of rain is likely for the Florida Peninsula,” Norcross wrote. “On the current schedule, rain chances increase by Sunday, especially south of I-4, and continue through much of the week. The front will eventually push down the state, clearing North and Central Florida first, but a wet weather pattern could well continue in South Florida.”
The weather pattern is complex, consisting of three waves: the remnants of a tropical Pacific system moving east over southern Mexico and Central America, a wave in the western Caribbean Sea off the Yucatan Peninsula, and a building low-pressure system in the Bay of Campeche west of the Yucatan.
“While the exact track and intensity of the (system) unfolding in the Gulf have yet to be determined, Florida will bear the brunt this time around,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said. “At this time, the intensity will range from a sprawling tropical rainstorm to perhaps a strike from a more compact, full-blown hurricane.”
The system is carrying a lot of moisture, bringing heavy rainfall to parts of the Florida already saturated by Hurricane Helene. As much as a foot of rain could fall in some areas, Norcross wrote in his post.
Far in the Atlantic, Hurricane Leslie formed on Saturday and Hurricane Kirk continued moving northwest as a Category 3 major hurricane. Neither is a threat to land.
Leslie, located 785 miles west-southwest of Africa’s Cabo Verde Islands, had a maximum sustained wind speed of 80 mph and was moving west-northwest at 7 mph as of 11 a.m. Saturday. Forecasters are projecting the five-day track to turn to the northwest, away from the Caribbean, and increase in forward speed. Leslie may begin weakening sometime in the next one or two days.
“The ridge will continue to steer Leslie the next several days with a turn more northwestward, with an increase in forward speed by the middle of the forecast period,” forecasters said.
Meanwhile, Hurricane Kirk weakened to a Category 3 hurricane after its maximum sustained winds dropped to 120 mph Saturday morning. Though Kirk is not near land, it is forecast to bring large swells to the U.S. East Coast by Sunday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
At 11 a.m. Saturday, Kirk was located about 1040 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and was moving north at 16 mph.
Long-range forecasts show Kirk arcing north and west toward Europe.
Finally, a tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa on Monday or Tuesday. It could develop as it moves westward or west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. It had a 30% chance of forming in the next seven days as of 8 a.m. Saturday.
The next named storm will be Milton.
Forecasts for Hurricane Helene’s path were uncannily accurate. Here’s why.
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