The trade war between the United States and China It is an example that we are experiencing “the dismemberment of globalization in real time,” according to Alan Stoga, president of the Tällberg Foundation and Zemi Communications, the only one who predicted in 2016 that DDonald Trump would win the presidency.
The political strategist explained the implications of the elections in the United States to investors of Vector Casa de Bolsa in Monterrey; His friend, businessman Alfonso Romo, invited him to share what is happening on the other side of the border and the potential impact of the electoral process on the business world.
In the interview he is blunt: The relationship with China will be one of the issues that will put tension on the table in which the countries that are part of the free trade agreement between Mexico, United States and Canada (T-MEC). This time, the discussion involves a definition of foreign policy and commercial economics between the three and the geographical reality and interests must be taken into account.
Beyond the elections, the next review of the T-MEC also looms in 2026, and if China will create friction, can US partners be “friends” of China?
“Countries do not have friends, they have interests, allies and geographical realities. Those are the three things that should determine foreign policy, including economic and commercial policy (…) We are in the process of witnessing in real time the dismemberment of globalization, but I am not saying that it will disappear, we are still global, but that is not the case. “what we thought it would be, we did not get rid of all the barriers that we thought we had eliminated,” he said in an exclusive interview with MILLENNIUM.
For years there was developed a very intense relationshipfinancial, economic and commercial betweenUnited States and China which has been destroyed and is generating costs “some of which cannot be assumed,” he said.
“Whether it’s Huawei, TikTok – which is still a problem in the United States right now – among others, we believe that they are conduits to undermine our national security, there is a reason for us to say that it has to stop,” explained the former chief economist of the Bipartisan National Commission for Central America, created by President Ronald Reagan.
For him, there is an agreement on foreign policy between Republicans and Democrats, regardless of who wins the presidential election next November, “we need to move towards a confrontation with China faster than we are moving.”
Another of the discussions that Mexico will enter is related to the phenomenon of migration, even though this is not part of the T-MECStoga believes that “it will determine the temperature of the room, so that is something that has to be discussed at some point.”
Relocation
Regarding nearshoring, Alan Stoga highlighted that it is an inevitable phenomenon, both to combat climate change and for transparency of how it works and where the supplies for certain products come from.
“We have experienced the problem of long supply chains, Hurricane Milton is a natural phenomenon that tells us that having a long logistics chain in a world with high climate impact due to its emissions is simply foolish.”
Secondly, he added, countries like The United States and Mexico are sensitive to child labor or slaverybut given the lack of transparency in the origin of certain products, it is necessary to shorten distances.
The former senior advisor and CEO of Kissinger Associates stated that Relocating investments for lower-cost labor is the worst reason to move a company. company.
“Mexico should not want to sell cheap laboryou should want to sell excellent workmanship. I think that is the direction that the last governments have taken and are taking now.” However, he said the competition for relocation is not just between Mexico and Canadabut also among the 48 entities that make up the United States, “it is a very big country.”
Offensive position
The economist considers that, when the presidential election in the US is decided, Mexico will know if the review could be changed to a renegotiation of the T-MEC.
“If Trump is president, he will insist on it. If Kamala Harris wins I think there’s at least a chance she won’t, but I don’t think it’s a very good chance. If I were Mexico, I would think a lot about either scenario, not about how to play defense, but about how to play offense,” he highlighted.
For Alan Stoga, the relationship Mexico and the US It lacks a positive joint project to return to a unitary vision. “We don’t have something we’re trying to do together, and we have to find a project, because if we don’t find it, then all this little crap will become unmanageable, it will go in the wrong direction. Bad things will happen. That is where a combination of academia, the business sector and civil society should, in some way, be talking to each other,” he stressed.
On political issues, Stoga noted that there are significant changes in US political parties. The Democrats now represent the “establishment”, those who studied in universities, while the Republicans are now the representation of the workers.
AG
