How the climate in Mexico will be affected by the Central American Giro – Grupo Milenio

Meteorologists are closely monitoring what could become the next trigger for torrential rains and even the formation of a storm tropical: it is a C-TurnEntroamerican which already seems to be consolidating in the southern Mexico.

Typically, these weather events take time to organize and are common among May and NovemberThe last one recorded in the region caused the formation of the first cyclone of the 2024 season, Alberto.

Although they do not always manage to condense the formation of cyclones, their presence alone has a great effect on some Central American countries. According to an article in the magazine of the University of Yale, Climate Connectionin the next few days a new Central American Tour could begin to cause heavy rains on some coasts of the Peaceful and Gulf of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua.

A twist, also known as Great Central American Depressionis an expanding low pressure system, capable of extending for several kilometers, covering large distances of the ocean for several days or even weeks.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) They are similar to large monsoon systems, they usually bring with them an enormous amount of humidity and can cause strong storms.

The former hurricane hunter of the NOAA, Jeff Matters points out that the main models consulted by Climate Connections They point out that The gyre looming south of the Gulf of Mexico could generate the next Atlantic cyclone.

What do we know about the next cyclone?

According to the latest forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC), there is an 80 percent chance about what The cyclone is expected to form in the next seven days.sif successful, will receive the following name of the list this hurricane season: Helene.

For now, meteorologists believe there is a high probability that the Mexico’s coasts experience the formation of a hurricane before the end of September.

“Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall over portions of Central America during the next few days,” warns the NHN.

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The main areas of surveillance for now are the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba, where “the progress of this system should be monitored.”

For experts it is complex to calculate the possible path of the storm in case that Helene arise from the Central American TourHowever, it is expected that during the week of September 22-28, the system move northward across the Gulf of Mexico. For now the National Weather Service (SMN) has not issued any notice in this regard.

What to expect and which states would be most affected

Although it is still too early to ensure the formation of a tropical cyclone, it is expected that on its own the Central American Gyre generates a huge amount of rain.

It is worth remembering that its formation during this 2024 brought with it the cyclone Albertowhich caused torrential rains in 19 of the country’s 32 entities even after it had been degraded.

From June 19 to 21, the accumulated water managed to give a respite to the dams of New Leon, Coahuila and Tamaulipas as they raised their levels after facing severe droughts since 2022.

Thus, the turn together with the first cyclone helped 50 of the 2,180 municipalities who were experiencing some degree of drought in the country, according to the National Water Commission (CONAGUA).

On this occasion, in addition to the possible formation of Helene Further south, another cyclone is forecast in the Peacefulhence Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo would be the entities most affected by torrential rains, according to the SMN forecasts.

The rest of the country may not experience such heavy rainfall, however, it will not be free of rain: More than 22 entities, mainly from the southeast and center of Mexicowill be affected by these weather systems.

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