Given the growing possibility of victory of the Republican candidate donald trump in the next presidential elections of the United States (EU), to be held on November 5, The dollar is strengthening, warned the financial firm Citibanamex.
Through its Daily Economic Report, the financial firm indicated that, according to the election model in the United States, published by The Economist; for the first time in two months, candidate Trump leads the chances of victory in the electoral process and now gives him 54% probability of winning the election.
Vote forecast for US elections
The trend responds to the fact that many voters, who had not yet decided their vote, are increasingly leaning towards this candidate. According to the mentioned model, Of the 270 electoral votes needed to win, Trump would get 276 and Kamala Harris 262.
Faced with such a panorama of continued uncertainty, derived from both geopolitical tensions and the electoral process in the United States, the main emerging market currencies are falling; in particular the peso-dollar exchange rate, at times quoted above 20 units, registering a depreciation on the day of 0.5% on average.
Besides that also losses have been recorded in Group of 10 currencies with the yen down 0.8% and currencies such as the Swedish crown and Canadian dollar losing 0.3% during the session.
How did the Mexican Stock Market wake up?
During the morning of Monday, October 21, the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) failed to maintain the positive momentum registered on Friday the 18th. when the S&P/BMV IPC index closed with a rise of 1.07%, driven by the industrial, goods and consumer staples sectors.
While, at the close, it registered a loss of 0.40% in the session. Inside, the losses of the stations stand out: Banorte (-1.37%), Cemex (-1.42%), América Móvil (-0.82%) and Arca Continental (-1.91%).
Effects of the US elections
He mexican peso It depreciated 0.61 percent, equivalent to 12.2 cents, closing at 19.97 units per dollar. this Monday, October 21, 2024.
The session was marked by comments from Federal Reserve officials, including Neel Kashkari, who repeated that he expects “modest” rate cuts in the coming quarters, although a strong weakening of labor markets could lead him to advocate for faster reductions.
Due to the upcoming presidential elections in the United States, according to specialists, the national currency is beginning to suffer from the uncertainty of this event.
“We are seeing, at least since last week, that this electoral factor in the United States is affecting the exchange rate to a greater extent, pesos per dollar, especially due to the statements made by the Republican candidate Trump, something that in some way we expected, if the contest remained very close like now”commented Janeth Quiroz, director of analysis at Grupo Financiero Monex.
“All this, in the end, is leading to uncertainty about what could happen, especially given that we are approaching the elections that are still very close,” he added.
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