The demand for housing in mexico is falling with the possibility of closing this year with a drop of 21 percent, according to figures from Federal Mortgage Society (SHF)this is for the high interest rates on mortgage loans.
But specialists consulted by MILLENNIUM They say this could change in the coming months if the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) maintains its tendency to reduce its monetary policysince it has already changed from 11 to 10.75 percent, and with that revive the country’s real estate market.
SHF data shows that the price of housing in mexico in the last year rose 9.4 percentwhich combined with A high interest rate caused 735,160 houses to be sold with some financing, a figure well below that reported in 2023.
Romualdo Mata González, director of BBVA Mexico’s mortgage networkassured that in 2020 and 2021 the market showed strength and demand.
“At the beginning of the pandemic, we thought that the sector was going to suffer a lot, and it turns out that 2020 and 2021 were extraordinarily good years for housing placement. As there was a lot of uncertainty, people sheltered their investments in bricks and mortar,” he told MILLENNIUM.
However, Eduardo Reyes Smith-MacDonald, Deputy General Manager of Mortgage Credit at Grupo Financiero Banortenoted that currently things are different because data from the second quarter of the year show that the number of mortgages is declining.
“The issue of the rate is always important because it defines the market. Data for June show that the number of mortgages fell by 4.6 percent in nominal terms, and if you apply inflation, it is even lower,” he said.
Gonzalo Palafox, executive director of mortgage credit at Citibanamexexplained that they decided to maintain and cushion the growth of their rates in order to maintain accessible tools.
Used car sales grow
Another phenomenon present due to this situation is the increase in demand for houses usedas SHF estimates say it will represent 29.22 percent of the total units soldThis figure will be 7.52 percentage points higher than in 2023.
“This type of offer becomes a little more accessible when you are looking for a home and also the dwelling Used is very good, because it is usually better located (…) We have to take advantage of that infrastructure, improve it,” said Gonzalo Palafox.
He pointed out that this demand is different in each square or region of the country, because he says that there are some entities where the supply of houses new is greater than used.
Market distribution
The financial institution that grants the most mortgage loans is BBVA Mexico.
In the first six months of the year, it placed 326,518 million pesos, positioning itself as the leader within the segment. Alejandro Cárdenas Bortoroni, general manager of corporate bankingauto and mortgage of the institution, stressed that One in every three mortgage loans in the country is theirs.
In second place is Banorte, which data as of June indicated that it placed 239 thousand 939 million pesos, and in third place is Scotiabank with 225 thousand 238 million.
Opportunity with the million homes?
With the proposal of the president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum to build through the National Workers’ Housing Fund Institute one million homesthe three financial institutions consulted by MILLENNIUMthey see an opportunity to provide more credit to the population.
This could happen, as long as this initiative takes shape and becomes a reality.
“We have always worked, hand in hand I would say with all governments, so, of course, we, among others, dwelling “The better it is for us because we have more opportunities to provide credit,” said Romualdo Mata, director of BBVA’s mortgage network.
Although Citibanamex also views this initiative favorably, it commented that more details need to be observed regarding the construction project of the next administration.
“The immediate answer is yes, of course, as an institution we see and have the resources to be able to support the financing of the buyers of these housing I know that they are required, now I think that we need to know many more details about how this entire production process will be,” said Gonzalo Palafox.
Banorte also indicated that it hopes that the idea “is grounded” so that in the measure and as the million dollar project progresses housesthe financial institution can join in granting loans to the interested population.
“We have heard the initiative of the million housingwe are waiting for the idea of how we plan to operate to become more concrete and surely to the extent that it is appropriate for the bank and Banorte, we will participate in the opportunities that arise,” added Eduardo Reyes Smith of GFB.
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