Some surveys show that Kamala Harris begins to close the gap with Donald Trump in certain swing states. Others show that it is likely to be a very close race down to the wire, with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to be decided—like the previous two.
Readers of Swamp Notes You will know that I am interested in the industrial heartland for economic, political and personal reasons, so I have spent a lot of time talking to people who are on the ground, who know what is happening in those places.
One of my best sources of political information about real people in the heart of the country led me to a fascinating conversation with a friend we’ll call Jim. I think the conversation says a lot about where we are in this election and what Democrats in particular need to think about before and after November.
The story goes like this: Jim is a proud son of a working-class Philadelphia family and a man whose business is advising small business owners (Republicans and Democrats, anti-Trump people and MAGA devotees). This work takes him all over Pennsylvania’s cities, suburbs, and rural communities. Jim comes from a union family and is an intellectual: a student of history, politics, and economics who has befriended some of the country’s leading public intellectuals. USA.
My source asked Jim: “What kind of moment are we in right now, politically? It seems like uncharted territory.”
He replied: “It’s a once-in-a-generation moment for a politician to change the course of the country’s future. Just think about it. Working people know that the policies of the past few decades have screwed them. They don’t need to be told how things are going for them. They know what’s going on. Trump He came in and told everyone he was going to make them feel great again. He was kicked out because of his incompetence. Biden took office and passed big bills that created jobs and focused on infrastructure and climate change.
“But he can’t seem to sell these accomplishments. Why? His age is a factor, no doubt. But the main reason—the one that lies in the stomach of all former Democratic voters who switched to Trump—is that Biden “He never acknowledged what they know to be the truth. That for decades the Democratic Party embraced free market, free trade, ‘every man for himself’ Republican policies that left them in dire financial straits.”
For Jim, the solution to this is clear: start with an apology and then welcome people into the Democratic PartyJim believes Harris can do what Biden couldn’t, but to do so, she’ll have to adopt a message that challenges wary advisers who “are the same people who have her in a tie with the worst politician ever!”
Harris must admit the Democratic Party’s mistakes to win in the swing states. What should that apology look like?
“If I were writing their speeches, I would begin with: ‘I’m not telling you, my friends, who to vote for. I’m here to tell you that I understand that Democratic Party leaders in the past have let you down. And as the standard-bearer of this party in the future, it is my responsibility to make those apologies. Our party was built on the foundation of President Roosevelt’s New Deal, which created the middle class.
“But from the 1980s through Donald Trump’s final days in office, many Democratic leaders embraced pro-Wall Street Republican policies that betrayed working- and middle-class Americans. Even Joe Biden He will tell you that he voted for bills that he now regrets. I am here to tell you that the leaders of our party got it wrong, and Joe Biden and I are beginning to right those wrongs.”
Readers of Swamp Notes Politically savvy people may think what the heck? Why should Harris apologize when she’s gaining ground? Shouldn’t she just promote the pro-worker policies she and Biden pushed and leave things as they are? Some may think it’s not worth angering wealthy California donors to try to win back union members in the Mon Valley (for more on what’s happening there and why it’s so important, read my column on the issue). today).
But Jim says no; he believes that to win in the swing states and reestablish Democrats as the party of choice for working people going forward, “this apology must happen first. Without it, his campaign will be squandering his talent and this unique moment in history to reset the deck for the Democratic Party as the party of working people and the middle class.”
For Jim, this is basic human relations. “Think about a marriage,” he said. “You have a big fight with your spouse, which let’s say is 100 percent your fault. To make amends, you do something nice for your partner, but we all know that if we don’t apologize first, the kind gesture will ring hollow because there was no accountability for what we did wrong. I’m convinced — and the evidence in the polls doesn’t prove me wrong — that’s why voters don’t give Biden credit for his accomplishments.”
Jim had another piece of wisdom that I agree with. “You have to understand human psychology. When vulnerable people are taken advantage of, there is a unique dynamic in which that anger comes back with greater fury at those who were supposed to be their defenders, who allowed the harm to occur, rather than at the people who actually caused them harm. Donald Trump recognizes this and has taken advantage of it.”
As South Africans have shown, you can’t have reconciliation without truth. Jim believes that apology and an invitation to come home can win Harris the race. “People want to come home. At least 5 percent of the electorate, who are former Democrats, voted for Trump and are leaning toward him in these three battleground states, know deep down that they are in bad company and are looking for someone to welcome them home.
“Harris has the charisma, grace and warmth to do that. These are God-given attributes that can move mountains. She can welcome them home and many will come.” Jim had one last rather poetic point worth sharing.
“Booker T. Washington once said, ‘Drop the bucket where you stand,’ because there’s water beneath us. Harris needs to drop the bucket, apologize, then tout her and Biden’s accomplishments and what’s to come. Trump is a bubble ready to burst. The hard legislative work is already underway. A simple apology will burst the Trump bubble.” You don’t need paid consultants or focus groups to tell you this. You just need to live here and know the people.
Sounds good to me. Peter, what would you say to Jim?
Recommended readings
-Interesting ideas of Mitch Danielsthe former governor of Indiana, in The Washington Poston how the US should prepare for a post-dollar world, given rising public debt and the desire of many countries to move away from the dollar as a reserve. This is not imminent, but readers will know that I share Daniels’ concerns. (See my first article on the topic of 2020).
-An article by The New York Times on the science of inflammation and why it is behind so many diseases.
-I agree with my colleague Janan Ganesh that Europe is not in danger of overtaking the US in terms of growth, and I would also recommend that European politicians read my colleague’s opinion Martin Wolf on Draghi’s report.
Peter Spiegel responds
Rana, I disagree with Jim, but I’ve made it clear here before that I don’t think a policy shift to a more protectionist view on trade and markets is good politics for Harris. I’m more intrigued by the suggestion of a political apology as a campaign tactic. Modern history suggests that’s not always a popular move.
Much depends on how big the error is. Bill Clinton He apologized for his affair with Monica Lewinskybut voters viewed the sin as so great — and her lies about it so extensive — that it hardly qualifies as a political masterstroke. Clinton’s reputation never recovered, and she remains a controversial figure in some quarters of the Democratic Party, especially in a modern era when a powerful male leader having inappropriate relations with a subordinate is considered a fireable transgression.
In contrast, the decision of Barack Obama The president’s apology for the botched launch of healthcare.gov, the website created to sign up for new insurance plans under Obamacare, was an expression of regret for a small sin. Yes, the consequences were horrible for Americans who lost their health insurance thanks to a faulty website, but no one thought Obama was to blame and it was a minor issue in the grand scheme of governance. Obama’s popularity recovered and Obamacare is now popular.
Two decades of Democratic political orthodoxy is a very serious thing to apologize for. Very important, in my view. It may also backfire spectacularly. Trump is trying to paint Harris as a big-government liberal from San Francisco, and many of the “Jims” I’ve spoken to in swing states are reluctant to support her for that reason. Publicly apologizing for an economic policy that is widely seen as moderate and centrist is not going to help overcome the Trump narrative.
Jim, I’m sorry. As a journalist, I think a big, dramatic apology for the Democratic Party’s centrist turn on economic policy since the Clinton administration would make a great story, more so for Financial Times. But it would also be bad policy.
