Israel has described its operations in Lebanon as “limited and local,” with the aim of allowing families displaced from northern Israel to return home. But officials and analysts suggested the scope of the mission could expand to include occupation of Lebanese territory, an assault on Beirut, and confrontation with Iran.
Israel Defence Force (IDF) spokesperson, Daniel Hagari, said on Tuesday that commando units launched overnight raids targeting Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon – a claim denied by the group and Lebanese media – and that dozens of similar cross-border raids were carried out since January.
Mr Hagari said operations in Lebanon would be “as short as we can,” without specifying a timeframe. But the military also gave indications it could expand the mission – mobilising four reserve brigades to the northern front on Tuesday, and ordering Lebanese civilians to evacuate villages up to 60km from the border.
On Monday the White House said Israel had the right to defend itself but warned of the risk of “mission creep”.
Israeli MP Sharren Haskel, who serves in the coalition government with the New Hope party and on the National Security Committee, said the scope of the invasion was yet to be determined, suggesting it could extend as far as Beirut.
“Right now it’s very limited,” she told i. “When we go in, we will know better how far we need to reach.”
“I don’t think the IDF will restrict itself or put limitations on the operation. Hezbollah has capabilities that they are hiding in Dahiye, Beirut. I don’t know if our soldiers will reach there. But they need to eliminate the threat of Hezbollah.”
Whether the offensive extends that far could depend on cooperation from the Lebanese government and international community to help Israel drive Hezbollah back from the border, the MP added.
Israeli leaders have stated throughout a year of hostilities with Hezbollah that Israel is seeking a ceasefire on its northern border. But a series of successful strikes against the group – including the assassination of Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah – have created a sense of opportunity to further weaken an old enemy and the wider network of Iran-backed militias.
“[Hezbollah] is damaged, but we have to make sure that it does not pose a threat again,” said Ms Haskell. “We will not have another opportunity like this.”
The assault on Iran’s most powerful allied militia could lead to direct confrontation with the Islamic Republic, she acknowledged.
“Iran is already attacking Israel by proxies every single day,” the Israeli official said. “Our response is definitely going to be tied to the way that Iran continues to respond to us.”
Yaakov Amidror, a former IDF general and national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with close ties to Israel’s defence establishment, said Israel cannot hope to destroy Hezbollah but could leave the group permanently weakened.
“We can eliminate them to the level that they cannot deter us, and we will continue to destroy them in future, not let them grow into another monster,” he said.
General Amidror agreed that Israel’s war aims in Lebanon are fluid and could yet include a surge to the capital. “We don’t have a plan to go to Beirut but we are judging the situation every day,” he said.
Israel’s focus has switched to the north only after scaling back its presence in Gaza, General Amidror added, leaving ample manpower and resources available for a major operation. The Israeli public supports escalation against Hezbollah, he added – a view supported by recent polling.
Israeli officials have also raised the prospect of an occupation of southern Lebanon, with minister for diaspora affairs, Amichai Chikli, recently proposing a “buffer zone, free of the enemy population,” to be administered by Israel.
Military sources told The Economist that one of the goals of a ground offensive could be the capture of a swathe of territory referred to as a “buffer zone”- the same term used to describe Israeli-controlled territory around the perimeter of Gaza, which legal scholars have alleged to be a war crime.
Ms Haskell and General Amidror both agreed this would be a realistic outcome. “I don’t say that we don’t need a strip of security,” the MP said.
Hugh Lovatt, a Middle East analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said recent history suggested that Israel’s operations in Lebanon could spiral out of control.
“Israel is certainly framing its invasion of Lebanon as a limited and targeted operation. But this is also how Israel initially framed its invasion of Gaza, before ultimately expanding this to central and southern Gaza,” he said. “The likelihood is that Israel will expand the scope of its military operation over the coming days and weeks, as it collects new intelligence on Hezbollah and as the Lebanese group continues its own attacks against Israel.”
“A more expansive operation is also made more likely by US acquiescence and an increasingly emboldened Israeli government that may now have set its sights on a full defeat of Hezbollah and creating a new middle eastern order.”
Professor Kobi Michael, a military analyst at the Israeli think-tanks the Institute for National Security Studies and the Misgav Institute, said that Israel air strikes across the country would continue during the ground operation, including the capital.
“Israel will continue attacking in the depth of Lebanon, including Beirut…to continue the momentum and continue weakening Hezbollah,” he said. “Beirut will not look like Gaza, but it will be more similar to Gaza than it used to be.”
