The 2024 NFL season has been full of surprises, maybe none greater than Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers getting off to a 3-1 start.
Tampa Bay’s passing offense has played a big part in its success, considering that the running game has been slow to get on track.
With the Buccaneers visiting Atlanta on Thursday night, there’s a potential the Falcons could be under pressure to put up points on the board to match Tampa Bay point for point.
We’ll revisit that angle as part of our bet365 three-leg same-game parlay.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buccaneers | +1.5 (-110) | +105 | o44 (-110) |
| Falcons | -1.5 (-110) | -125 | u44 (-110) |
Buccaneers vs. Falcons same-game parlay
- Leg 1: Buccaneers 1H +0.5 (-115)
- Leg 2: Kirk Cousins over 226.5 passing yards (-110)
- Leg 3: Kyle Pitts over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
Buccaneers 1H +0.5 (-115)
As a first-half underdog, Mayfield has been one of the more underrated betting angles over the last few seasons. According to the Action Network, the quarterback this season is 2-0 against the spread (ATS) in this spot and 14-6 over the last three seasons.
The former No. 1 overall pick is coming off a career-high 28 touchdown passes in 2023, prompting Tampa Bay to reward him with a three-year, $100 million deal.
Mayfield’s stellar performance might’ve even persuaded coach Todd Bowles, traditionally very conservative, to be more offensive-minded. However, Bowles might have little choice, considering his rushing attack ranks in the bottom half of the league with a 38.1% success rate, while his team’s pass-play rate ranks 10th at 60.5%.
That aggressiveness should serve them well against an Atlanta defense ranked in the bottom half against the pass in the FTN Fantasy’s Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.
Kirk Cousins Over 226.5 passing yards (-110)
With the Buccaneers putting the Falcons under pressure to keep pace offensively, it makes sense to target Falcons QB Kirk Cousins to exceed his passing prop of 226.5 yards.
The Falcons will likely struggle running the ball Thursday, with 6-foot-4, 347-pound nose tackle Vita Vea in the middle of the Buccaneers’ line.
Atlanta is only slightly better than Tampa Bay in rush success rate (38.6%), and its pass play rate of 58.14% is 14th in the league.
Cousins has exceeded this projection in five of his previous six appearances at home and in his last three games. If you like the Buccaneers in this matchup, there’s a clear path to Cousins going over his passing prop.
Kyle Pitts over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
This is a standard contrarian play, considering the Falcons tight end didn’t record a single reception last week for the first time in his NFL career.
Pitts won’t need to look at the box score to know he finished the game without a catch, and he’ll likely be hanging around his quarterback’s locker in search of an explanation.
Betting on the NFL?
He’s recorded at least 31 receiving yards in five of his last eight games after finishing with 15 or fewer. When you couple that with opposing tight ends averaging 33.5 receiving yards against the Bucs, there’s just enough to warrant a play on Pitts going over this prop.
Best bet: Same-game parlay (+425, bet365)
- Leg 1: Buccaneers 1H +0.5 (-115)
- Leg 2: Kirk Cousins over 226.5 passing yards (-110)
- Leg 3: Kyle Pitts over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
