London /
Egg prices began to soar as devastating outbreaks of bird flu around the world and changes in consumer tastes began to put pressure on supplies.
Global average prices are 60 percent higher than in 2019, according to Rabobank analysts, a rapid rise in prices led to J.D. Vance, candidate for the US vice presidency, to score political points in the US electoral campaign. The egg shortage also created temporary restrictions on breakfast service. McDonald’s in Australia.
One factor in the rise in prices has been devastating outbreaks of bird flu in North America and Europe, which led to the culling of tens of millions of laying birds.
According to Rabobankbetween November 2023 and July of this year in the US, 33 million laying hens and pullets (young hens that have not yet laid eggs) were slaughtered, shortly after another outbreak of avian flu in 2022 that killed 40 million birds.
“Long effects” of bird flu are compounded by growing demand, he said Karyn Rispolimanaging editor of eggs at Expana, a provider of commodities trading data.
He said consumers are also turning to eggs as a more affordable source of protein than meat. Concerns about the carbon footprint of meat consumption are also driving demand for eggs, he added Rabobank.
These factors led Americans to pay more than three times as much for eggs today as they did five years ago, according to Rabobank. By comparison, South African egg prices only doubled in the same period, while Russia, Japan, Brazil and Europe and India saw price increases of between 50 and 90 percent, Rabobank said.
“While prices are relatively higher globally, there are large regional differences,” he said. Nan-Dirk Mulderglobal animal protein specialist at RaboResearch. The main exception is Chinawhere the industry suffers from too rapid expansion of supply and a weak economy, he added.
Data indicates that US egg fans have been subject to large swings in price in recent years. Mulder says that the producers in USA They also have to deal with regulations that restrict cross-state sales.
The price of a pack of a dozen eggs peaked at $4.82 in January 2023, when global food prices soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, within months prices were cut in half. In August of this year they reached 3.02 dollars.
The fluctuations drew criticism from JD Vance in the battleground state of Pennsylvania this month, as he blamed Kamala Harristhe Democratic presidential candidate, over egg price inflation.
Egg sales usually drop in the summer months, but this year retail demand was unusually high, according to Emily Metzpresident and CEO of the American Egg Board.
He added that American farmers are trying to shore up the egg supply. “Ideally, we need about one bird for every American,” he said. Metzwho estimated that the US has around 300 million laying hens for approximately 345 million Americans. “Increasing the size of the flock to meet demand takes time, but we are working on it.”
On a global scale, the bird flu outbreak is affecting other markets, particularly Australia, leading to egg rationing in some supermarkets. In July, McDonald’sthe global fast food giant, has temporarily reduced breakfast service hours at some Australian outlets, reportedly in response to bird flu egg shortages. McDonald’s Australia did not respond to a request for comment.
In the medium term, there are signs of relief for US consumers with US wholesale egg prices down 49 percent since August 16 as stocks of laying birds recover.
However, mulder is cautious as to whether this will translate into much lower prices on supermarket shelves.
“At the moment, until the end of the year, I think we will continue to see relatively high prices, maybe a little lower than now as inventories recover,” he said.
“But as for the future: it all depends on whether there will be more outbreaks of bird flu during the winter, and that is difficult to predict.”
