After months of slowly growing distance between his and the Vice President’s national survey averages, former President Donald Trump finally got some good polling news this week, proving once again that the presidential race isn’t ever really over until it’s actually over.
A New York Times/Siena College battleground state poll released Monday morning shows the former president ahead in the key swing states of Arizona and Georgia, and that he’s holding onto the lead in North Carolina despite a messy gubernatorial race there.
According to the poll, when asked to pick between the 45th President and Vice President Kamala Harris, likely voters in those states say they would prefer a second Trump term over a first Harris presidency.
In Arizona, which President Joe Biden won in 2020 by just over 10,000 votes, Trump leads by five points, 50% – 45%. Harris is losing the state, according to the survey, while Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Ruben Galego is ahead of Republican candidate Kari Lake by six points.
In Georgia, which Biden took by a slim, less than 12,000-vote margin, Trump is ahead by four points, 49% – 45%.
North Carolina is the closest of the three, according to the poll, with Trump still ahead but by just two points, 49% – 47%. That’s within that poll’s 4.2 point margin of error, and could signal danger for the Trump campaign in a state Republicans have won through most of the last five decades.
The polling comes after a recent survey by The Hill/Emerson College showed Harris up by one point in North Carolina while trailing by just one point in Arizona and three points in Georgia.
The Republican vice presidential candidate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance was scheduled for a pair of addresses in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Monday, and set to speak in the state again on Wednesday in Mint Hill, according to the Trump campaign.
To hear the Harris-Walz campaign tell it, the Tar Heel State may be in play this election cycle due to the state Republican Party’s decision to support a controversial candidate in Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, who Trump endorsed and called “Martin Luther King on steroids.”
“JD Vance heads down to North Carolina later today to further cement Donald Trump’s deep ties with North Carolina Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson in the wake of bombshell reporting uncovering that Robinson called himself a ‘Nazi’ in comments on a porn website, asserted that we should bring back slavery, and praised Hitler’s Mein Kampf as ‘a good read,’” the campaign said in a press release.
According to Harris-Walz 2024 spokesperson Ammar Moussa, Vance’s visit won’t shore up votes in North Carolina, but simply serve to remind voters that the “Trump-Vance-Robinson ticket is the most extreme in American history.”
Trump’s team says voters in North Carolina know who is making their lives more expensive.
“Under Kamala Harris’ failed leadership, prices have surged by over 21 percent, slapping North Carolina families with an extra $1,000 in monthly costs just to get by. It’s no wonder that over half of North Carolinians say inflation is crushing their pocketbooks, half of the state says inflation is the most pressing issue they are facing,” the campaign said in a statement.
Recent national surveys show Harris has continued to hold onto the lead she built soon after launching her campaign for the White House.
A CBS News poll of over 3,000 likely voters showed Harris ahead by four points nationally, and leading Trump across the battleground states by two points. A smaller NBC News poll of around 1,000 registered voters showed Trump trailing by five points, “a clear shift from July’s poll, when Trump was ahead by 2 points before President Joe Biden’s exit.”
“Harris’ favorability has jumped 16 points since July, the largest increase for any politician in NBC News polling since then-President George W. Bush’s standing surged after the 9/11 terrorist attacks,” NBC wrote of their survey.
Last week’s Morning Consult survey of more than 11,000 likely voters found Harris with a six point advantage, which would represent the largest lead she or Biden have managed against third-time candidate Trump since 2024 polling began.
“Harris leads Trump by a record-high 6 percentage points among likely voters, 51% to 45%, up from a 3-point advantage before their debate last week. Her 51% of support among likely voters, which is also at a record high, is driven largely by her best figures to date among Democrats, Biden 2020 voters, liberals, women, 18- to 34-year-olds and millennials,” those pollsters wrote.
Not that it’s any surprise considering the state, but a WBUR/CommonWealth Beacon poll of 800 likely voters also released on Monday shows Harris up in deep-blue Massachusetts 59% – 31%.
The general election will be held on November 5th. You can check your voter registration status by visiting https://www.usa.gov/confirm-voter-registration.
Matt Rourke/Pool/ The Associated Press
Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to members of the media upon her arrival at Andrews Air Force Base, Md., Sunday. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke/Pool)
