Mexico is experiencing a whole range of weather events at the same time, some of them will continue to cause strong rainswhile others will bring a decrease in temperatures as autumn progresses and winter enters.
Currently, near Mexican territory, the atmospheric board is full of pieces in play: the hurricane Milton in it Gulfthe possible formation of a new cyclone in the Peacefullow pressure channels, a monsoon trough, humidity and a icy air mass.
The cold in the next few days
Last week, as rainfall lashed the southeast and heat engulfed the northwest, a cold front located near the border between Mexico and the United States it spread.
Although as such it did not reach Mexican territory, its cold air mass The temperature dropped in several entities of the North Table and the Central Table. That is why in addition to cool afternoons, freezing mornings were experienced.
Currently, an anticyclonic system with cold air is located over US territory, coming from the North Pole. It is expected to maintain its advance towards Mexican territory, which will cool the nights and lower the temperature even further in several states.
For now the only places where they could be experienced between -5 and 0 °C are the mountainous regions of Chihuahua and Durango.
Meanwhile, some points of Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz, Oaxaca and Chiapas, They could register a cold of between 0 and 5 °C.
The data
Tropical depressions and cyclones DO NOT cause freezing temperatures
Tropical systems (such as depressions, storms and hurricanes) are confirmed with tropical air, characterized by being warm and humid. Given their properties, they cannot generate low temperatures, although they can cause heavy rain, wind and waves.
Cold fronts will begin to move more often
He Front Systems Notice of the SMN does not yet confirm that Mexico will experience a cold front in the coming days, however, it is expected that the mass of polar air continue to affect the country this week.
Besides, coat and scarf season is just beginning. The National Water Commission (Conagua) notes that the country will be affected by at least 48 of these phenomena and to least 7 winter storms.
Three of the systems were already presented between August and Septemberthe SMN waits three more in October, six in November, eight in December, eight in January, seven in February, six in March, four in April and two more in May 2025.
Starting in October—and as the transition between autumn and winter progresses—the entities that could register the greatest drops in temperature are Chihuahua, Durango, Tlaxcala, Zacatecas, State of Mexico, Aguascalientes, Coahuila and Hidalgo.
Frost and colder
In addition to fronts and storms, the season eitherautumn-winter for Mexico could be influenced by a phenomenon that currently has a 71 percent probability of forming before November 2024 (its presence is expected to persist until January or March 2025).
It is about The Girlone of the phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is characterized by the abnormal cooling of a region of the Pacific Ocean.
Although it is currently at a neutral point, its probable emergence could alter winter conditions. According to the meteorologist Multimedia, Abimale Salas, depending on the season of the year in which it occurs, Its presence makes the weather conditions in Mexico very variable.
When The Girl is present between autumn and winter “it is imminent” that there will be quite dry and cold periods, which may even be accompanied by strong frosts and heavy snowfall.
It should be remembered that last year (2023) the phenomenon The Child was present, helping some areas experience a slightly warmer winter.
What is needed for extreme cold in Mexico?
Mexico usually receives currents of polar air maritimeeither continental polar air masses coming from the USA. These give rise to the cold fronts that arrive in the country, bringing with them a common winter, that is, with the temperatures that are usually expected.
However, according to Abimael Salaswhen they are masses that are born from cold arctic air The impact is much greater, causing subzero temperatures more abruptly.
Since their origin is far north of the planet, they are usually stationed between the United States and Canada. However, when the polar vortex (that is, its place of origin) is disturbed, they cross borders, since when it weakens they are ‘pushed’ further south, favoring their incursion into Mexico.
LHM
