North Korea could send up to 12,000 troops to support Russia on the battlefield, South Korean officials claimed on Friday, echoing Ukraine’s intelligence assessment in a move that military analysts said could be “dangerous” for Ukrainian forces.
South Korea’s spy agency said North Korea had already begun to deploy troops in what the National Intelligence Service’s (NIS) called the “beginning of the North’s direct involvement” in Russia’s war on Ukraine.
The agency said Pyongyang began transporting 1,500 special forces troops to Russia’s far east between 8 and 13 October, where they were training at local military bases in preparation for deployment.
The soldiers were transported using four amphibious landing ships and three escort vessels owned by Russia, the NIS said. Troops were taken from North Korean cities of Chongjin, Hamhung and Musudan to Vladivostok, according to reports in Yonhap. An intelligence source told the South Korean news agency that a total of 12,000 troops could be deployed, including those from elite units.
The intelligence assessment echoes comments by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday when he said 10,000 North Korean troops were preparing to join Russian forces in what he called “the first step to a world war”.
Lieutenant-General Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Defence Intelligence Directorate, told military blog The War Zone intelligence indicated North Korean soldiers were already training in Russia, and that the first 2,600 North Korean soldiers would soon be sent to the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukrainian forces hold territory.
The claims have not been verified by Ukraine’s allies in Nato, the US or UK.
Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance has “no evidence that North Korean soldiers are involved in the fight”.
“We do know that North Korea is supporting Russia in many ways, weapons supplies, technological supplies, innovation, to support them in the war effort. And that is highly worrying,” he said.
On Thursday, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said the US and its allies were “alarmed” by North Korean support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, but could not confirm North Korean soldiers were sent to fight for Moscow.
“We are concerned by them and … we agreed that we will continue to monitor the situation closely,” Mr Campbell said.
A video circulating on social media purports to show North Korean soldiers training inside Russia. However this has not been independently verified by i.
Samuel Cranny-Evans, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, said while the claims still needed to be verified by UK or US officials, it was “likely” to be true.
He said North Korea is believed to have sent an engineering battalion earlier this year and the extra manpower could allow Russia to focus more effort in one given area, such as Kursk or the Donbas. However he said it’s less significant than the ammunition North Korea has already been sending.
“It’s not going to be something that… decisively changes the war for Russia or Ukraine based on its current trajectory,” he told i.
Pyongyang has already provided Russia with large amounts of defence material including millions of artillery shells and ballistic missiles, according to US and South Korean officials. Since September last year, the North has shipped at least 16,500 containers of weapons to Russia and Russia has fired missiles from those shipments in Ukraine, Washington has said.
Frank Ledwidge, a military expert and senior lecturer in war studies at University of Portsmouth, said Russia was more likely to use North Korean troops for supporting roles, such as engineering, driving trucks, digging trenches and repairing vehicles, rather than in front-line combat where they lack experience.
“I would suspect the Russian army do not want significant numbers of non-Russian speaking troops without any training at all,” he told i. “Given the way Russians do things, if they’re anywhere near the front line, they’ll be defeated in short order.”
He said the development will hurt Ukraine, which is already “under huge pressure” and “losing” the war.
“The situation’s very dangerous now for them, over the next few months and going forward, and there’s no real way forward.”
“Any augmentation in Russian forces, in whatever branch or role, is a disadvantage and will cause damage to Ukrainians,” he said.
Military analyst Justin Crump, who is a former British Army officer and chief executive of the Sibylline consultancy, told i the development could increase the likelihood of Ukraine getting more help from Western allies, which Mr Zelensky has been pushing for.
The Ukrainian president has called for an invitation for Kyiv to join Nato. On Friday, reports Ukraine would try to develop nuclear weapons were walked back by Mr Zelenksy’s chief of staff, who said they were incorrectly interpreted.
“We have not these thoughts about nuclear, we refuse it,” Andriy Yermak said in Brussels.
Mr Ledwidge agreed this was unlikely to happen while the war is ongoing because Ukraine is reliant on the West for aid.
“It would be absolutely fatal for them to try and do that now because they would lose the support of the West,” he said.
However, he said it would be a “significant possibly” after the war. Ukraine had nuclear weapons until it was forced to give them up in the 90s, so it has much of the expertise and technology needed, he added.
