It’s time.
Patriots rookie quarterback Drake Maye will make his starting debut Sunday against the Texans. Weather forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with the possibility of rain. Here’s one game-day guarantee: pressure on Maye.
Houston boasts one of the NFL’s best pass-rushing defenses, thanks to stud defensives ends Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. The Patriots know they must protect Maye from the type of pressure that battered Jacoby Brissett on 48.5% of his dropbacks the past five weeks. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt indicated they will have a multi-layered plan on Sunday.
“There’s definitely going to be ways that we can ensure that we’re going to take care of (Maye) in situations where there’s a lot of pressure,” Van Pelt said Thursday.
If they succeed, can they pull off the upset in Maye’s debut? Here’s what to watch for in Foxboro:
When the Patriots run
Rhamondre Stevenson is officially out, which opens the door to Antonio Gibson making his second consecutive start. Surprisingly, there’s been little difference between the two backs on a per-play basis.
Both have produced rushing success rates around 50% and broken tackles at a high rate, though it’s Gibson who ranks second in the league in rush yards gained after contact. Like Stevenson, he’s recently excelled behind the team’s base outside zone scheme, from which the Patriots are averaging 6.1 yards per carry the past few weeks. The Patriots will also likely test the middle of Houston’s run defense, which has been suspect.
Look for giant offensive guards Michael Jordan (6-foot-6, 315 pounds) and Mike Onwenu (350 pounds) to be the bellwethers for this rushing attack. If they’re controlling the middle — clearing space for inside runs and cutback lanes on outside handoffs — the rushing attack game should thrive. And don’t be surprised if Maye has his number called on some designed runs, or the Patriots involve him in some option plays.
When the Patriots pass
Will Maye air it out?
Before the Pats’ final drive in last weekend’s loss to Miami, they had completed a single deep pass in five games. Maye boasts a stronger arm than Jacoby Brissett and is better throwing off-platform, something that could allow the Patriots to attack downfield with better success. Expect the Patriots to put Maye on the move with more bootleg play-action throws to beat Houston’s pressure and set up a few deep shots.
Otherwise, Maye could be forced to work outside the numbers. The Texans’ defense ranks fifth-best at defending the short middle of the field by DVOA and No. 1 against tight ends. That will put more pressure on Ja’Lynn Polk, Kendrick Bourne and other wideouts to deliver for their new quarterback.
Speaking of pressure, keep an eye on the center. Backup guard/center Nick Leverett allowed seven pressures in his debut start last week, and the team has since signed ex-Raiders and Bengals center Ben Brown to its 53-man roster. It’s possible Brown could start or replace Leverett, if Houston flushes Maye out of the pocket early and often Sunday.
When the Texans run
Few teams have struggled to run lately more than the Texans, who averaged 3.4 yards per carry the last three weeks. Houston lost starting running back Joe Mixon to injury in Week 2 and has had a limited Dameon Pierce since. Both players showed improved health this week in practice, with Mixon returning to the field and Pierce being a full participant.
Regardless of who carries the ball Sunday, the Patriots must tighten their 25th-ranked run defense. Miami bowled their defense over in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s loss, after San Francisco controlled the clock with a game plan that hammered the edges of Mayo’s defense with 17 straight outside runs at the start. The Pats solved some of their edge issues with the return of Anfernee Jennings and playing Jahlani Tavai more at outside linebacker.
But veteran linebacker Raekwon McMillan must also deliver after a rough game versus the Dolphins, including two missed tackles that contributed to a season-high 193 rushing yards for Miami.
When the Texans pass
Houston phenom C.J. Stroud has rapidly joined the ranks of the game’s elite quarterbacks, and may not be solvable on Sunday. But the Patriots did catch a break with Nico Collins, the NFL’s leading receiver, going on injured reserve.
That should leave a juicy matchup between Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez and Stefon Diggs. Gonzalez has routinely lived up to his matchups versus opposing No. 1 receivers this season, while Diggs has 31 catches for 315 yards, plus two touchdowns. Houston’s starting slot receiver Tank Dell could also be a problem, especially given his run-after-catch ability, and he figures to see plenty of old college teammate Marcus Jones.
That leaves a mediocre Patriots pass rush with the task of affecting Stroud, and the team’s safeties trying to defend tight end Dalton Schultz. Expect Houston to target Schultz in key situations and inside the red zone. The Pats defense ranks 28th against tight ends this season by DVOA and has allowed the seventh-most yards to tight ends of any defense in the league.
Game pick
Texans 27, Patriots 16
