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Saturday, October 5, 2024

Rutgers vs. Nebraska, more picks against the spread

Rutgers vs. Nebraska, more picks against the spread

There is no heavyweight bout this week, no highly anticipated battle to pick up where Alabama and Georgia left off. 

But in a week with only one matchup of ranked teams (No. 9 Missouri at No. 25 Texas A&M), there are several intriguing storylines to track. 

Army and Navy are both 4-0 for the first time since 1945. Indiana is 5-0 for the first time since 1967. UNLV is 4-0 for the first time as a Division I program. Duke is 5-0 for the first time in 30 years. 

And Rutgers is 4-0 for the first time as a member of the Big Ten. 

Only a handful of coaches have successfully captured magic in separate stints with the same team. We’ve seen failures in New York with Red Holzman, Billy Martin, Bob Lemon and Ralph Houk. We’ve seen it recently with Jon Gruden and Tony La Russa. College football has seen it with Bobby Petrino, Mack Brown and Randy Edsall. 

Greg Schiano appeared doomed to follow the same path, stuck in one of the two best divisions in the nation. He went 9-27 in his first five years in the Big Ten East. 

But when conference expansion eliminated divisions, Rutgers found its greatest gift since parlaying millions of nearby cable boxes into a Big Ten invitation. 

Following a win at Virginia Tech and a home victory over Washington — featuring the second-largest crowd in SHI Stadium history (54,079) — the Scarlet Knights are in position for their best season since Schiano’s first stint, thanks to a relatively soft schedule — which excludes Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan and Iowa. 

One of Rutgers’ toughest tests comes at Nebraska, which suffered its only loss in overtime to No. 24 Illinois. 

In Blacksburg, the Scarlet Knights demonstrated their ability to thrive in a hostile environment. Against Washington, Rutgers showed the strength of a backfield averaging over 200 yards per game, and of a defense that ranks second in the nation in the red zone. 

Rutgers running backs will succeed against a Nebraska front that hasn’t yet faced a top-90 ground game. The defense will stand tall against Cornhuskers freshman Dylan Raiola, whose offense ranks 104th in red zone offense. 

Ride with Rutgers (+7). 

UNLV (-6.5) over Syracuse

The big-picture NIL ramifications of Matthew Sluka’s midseason exit overshadowed the reality that Vegas’ ceiling has been raised. Sluka, who had a 43.8 completion percentage, has been replaced by dual-threat, grad transfer Hajj-Malik Williams, who completed 13 of 16 passes with four total touchdowns and 119 rushing yards in a 59-14 statement win over Fresno State. 

Michigan State (+24) over OREGON

The Ducks are undefeated, but have been underwhelming, failing to cover three of four spreads against inferior opponents. They will coast on their talent for another game, as they look ahead to next week’s visit from Ohio State. 

Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel runs down the field during Oregon’s blowout win over Oregon State earlier in the season. Craig Strobeck-Imagn Images

Ucla (+28) over PENN STATE

The Bruins are ready, riding back-to-back covers against consecutive heavy favorites (LSU, Oregon). If you remove Penn State’s game against Kent State — perhaps the worst team in the nation — the Nittany Lions are averaging fewer than 30 points per game. 

Missouri (+2.5) over TEXAS A&M

The 12th Man won’t help one of the SEC’s worst offenses against a top-12 defense. The Aggies, who are 1-4 against the spread as a favorite this season, have lost six straight games against ranked opponents. 

GEORGIA (-24.5) over Auburn

The 12-team playoff gives the Dawgs plenty of time to turn around their season. Expect back-to-back blowout wins by the Bulldogs, as they tune up for their Oct. 19 showdown at Texas. 

Carson Beck drops back to pass during Georgia’s loss to Alabama at Bryant-Denny Stadium. William McLelland-Imagn Images

Iowa (+19.5) over OHIO STATE

The under (44.5) is the play in a matchup of top-five run defenses. Will Howard, who has thrown an interception in five of his past eight games, could struggle without the nation’s best backfield to lean on. 

SOUTH CAROLINA (+9.5) over Ole Miss

Lane Kiffin’s playoff hopes might have evaporated with a 20-17 home loss to Kentucky. Three weeks earlier, the Gamecocks dominated the Wildcats, 31-6, in Lexington. South Carolina — 2-0 against the spread as underdogs — is in line for a 28-point win. Thanks, math. 

VANDERBILT (+23.5) over Alabama

It has been two years since the Crimson Tide held the No. 1 ranking in the nation. It has also been two years since they lost the top spot after just one week. The high from its win over Georgia will only hurt Alabama’s focus against an historically overlooked opponent. 

Crimson Tide quarterback Jalen Milroe celebrates after Alabama’s win over Georgia. USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Con

FLORIDA STATE (+14.5) over Clemson

The Tigers were better off without DJ Uiagalelei. The Seminoles will be, too. 

Tennessee (-13.5) over ARKANSAS

The Vols’ top-five defense was given an extra week to find the weaknesses of mistake-prone Taylen Green, who has thrown five interceptions and committed five fumbles in the past four games. 

WASHINGTON (-2.5) over Michigan

The Wolverines have won back-to-back games despite being outgained in consecutive wins for the first time since 2005. If Alex Orji averaged 54 yards passing in Ann Arbor, what will the owner of 37 career attempts put up in his first road game, 2,300 miles from home? 

MINNESOTA (+8.5) over Usc

Bank on a breakout game from Gophers running back Darius Taylor, who will face a run defense ranked 101st in yards allowed per carry (5.0). The Trojans are 1-3 in their past four road games, covering just one of their past six away from home. 


Betting on College Football?


Baylor (+11.5) over IOWA STATE

Matt Campbell’s defense makes the Cyclones a playoff contender. An offense that has topped 21 points in only one game this season will make that chase an endless sweat. 

Miami (-10.5) over CALIFORNIA

Cam Ward, leading Washington State’s 50th-ranked offense last year, threw for 354 yards with four total touchdowns in Berkeley. This year, the Heisman Trophy contender arrives with the nation’s top-ranked offense to face the only team that has lost to Florida State. 

Best bets: Rutgers, Michigan State, South Carolina 
Season: 40-35 (5-10) 
2014-23: 1,272-1,206-30

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