The Republican candidate for the White House, the former president donald trumpha cattle land in the polls of her Democratic rival, the vice president Kamala Harrisand the elections of the next November 5 They emerge as the tightest of the last century in the United States.
Trump and Harris practically tied in key states
The candidacy of Harristhat replaced to President Joe Biden after he threw in the towel in July, initially sparked a great enthusiasm that moved to the polls, but trump has achieved spray that advantage when they are missing 16 days until the elections.
According to the latest forecast from the portal FiveThiryEight based on the average of published surveys nationally and in key states, trump achieve a slight advantage about Harris and has a 52 percent chance of win the elections on November 5.
Although the Democrat leads voting intention At the national level, the Republican is most favored for him Electoral collegethe system by which states grant a certain number of votes elections to the winning candidate.
two weeks agothe forecast from the same portal gave 58 percent options to Harris of defeat to trump.
Historically close elections
Although the Republican has cattle land In recent weeks, the situation is so tight that the probability of victory for each of the two candidates is practically equivalent to the throwing of a coin toss
The difference between Harris and Trump is less than two percentage points in the seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) so that a small statistical error could alter the result.
Furthermore, at the national level, the vice president only beats two points advantage to the former president, a difference narrower that the margin between Biden and Trump in any of the days of the 2020 campaign.
After those elections, the Republican refused to accept your defeat and promoted the vote count in some key states and several litigations that were dismissed in the courts.
In 2000, the outcome of the election was up in the air until the Supreme Court gave the victory to the Republican George W. Busch about the democrat Al Gore in Florida, which was then a hinge state.
But according to the portal FiveThirtyEightto find some elections so close As what the polls show, we must go back to 1876, when the Republican Rutherford Hayes defeated the democrat Samuel Tilden for a single electoral vote: 185 against 184.
Every vote counts
In such a tight setting, every vote counts and the two candidates are redoubling its presence in the seven decisive states, where in some cases the early vote with a high participation.
It has also intensified rhetoric and crossfire between both with attacks and insults.
trump suggested this week that would be willing to deploy the military against the “internal enemies” of the United States, in an apparent reference to its political rivals, while Harris described his rival as “fascist” and “deranged“.
The vice president has decided raise the tone against trump in an attempt to revitalize your campaignto which the former presidents have also joined Barack Obama and Bill Clintonand the former first lady Michelle Obama to give it a new boost.
The Republican is in Pennsylvania, where he visits a McDonald’s and from there I accuse Harris of having invented that young man worked for that chain fast food.
For her part, the Democratic candidate, who today turns 60 yearsis located in Georgia before traveling to Pennsylvaniawhere tomorrow he will campaign with Liz Cheney, former Republican congresswoman confronted with Trump.
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