The Red Sox season is officially over, and for the third straight year the club will be watching from home as the MLB playoffs unfold in the days and weeks to come. What should we make of this past year? And what moves can fans expect as we embark on what promises to be an interesting offseason?
The Herald’s Red Sox beat writers, Mac Cerullo and Gabrielle Starr, discuss.
Mac Cerullo: Well, we made it. Another season in the books. How are you feeling about the 2024 Red Sox?
Gabrielle Starr: Definitely different from how I felt at the end of last season. I think the Red Sox took some significant steps forward this year. It made this second-half collapse more frustrating than those of the previous two seasons, but I think all in all, they showed they’re headed in the right direction, which should make for a very interesting offseason. What do you think?
MC: There’s definitely more reason for optimism compared to last year, but it’s still disappointing. We all pretty much predicted exactly how this season would go, and if the Red Sox decision-makers had invested just a little bit more, maybe they could have hung in there and squeaked out a Wild Card berth. Sure, maybe there’s some satisfaction in being able to say “I told you so,” but at the end of the day, what’s done is done and now what matters most is where the Red Sox go from here.
Old Takes Exposed: How’d our preseason predictions turn out?
MC: Before we dive into the offseason, why don’t we hold ourselves accountable and revisit a few of our preseason predictions. We both basically had the Red Sox right — you predicted third place, I predicted fourth but with an 83-79 record — but some of our other AL East takes didn’t quite age as well.
MLB Predictions: Could Red Sox ace Brayan Bello earn Cy Young consideration?
GS: Third place for the win! (For me, anyway.) In our preseason edition I wrote, “If the Red Sox can stay healthy and their young core – especially the pitchers – can take the necessary steps forward, I could see them being the third-place team.” That turned out to be spot-on, especially in conjunction with my predictions that the division wouldn’t be “as hotly contested as last year” because either the Jays or Rays would “slip.” Both teams did, which certainly helped the Red Sox finish third. I will say, though, the Rays weren’t that far off; third place came down to the final game of the season!
I was right about the Baltimore bullpen being unreliable, but wrong to underestimate Corbin Burnes; he had an incredible first season in Baltimore, posting his best ERA since his ‘21 NL Cy Young season and making 32 starts. (The Red Sox handed him his worst start of the year, and of his entire career, though.) What did you think of the division this season vis-à-vis your predictions?
MC: I totally nailed Toronto and Tampa Bay taking a step back. I missed on the Yankees winning the division. “I do think the Orioles will repeat as AL East champion and frankly I don’t think it will be close.” Ehh. Not quite. Baltimore was good, but New York won the division by three games and had the second best run differential in MLB behind only the Dodgers. I didn’t fare great picking the playoff teams either, only 3 of 6 in both the AL and NL, though my individual predictions weren’t bad, at least in the AL. Aaron Judge should be a runaway AL MVP, George Kirby won’t win the Cy Young, but he had a good season. Rafael Devers was an All-Star, Trevor Story and Triston Casas weren’t, and Ceddanne Rafaela probably will be a strong candidate to earn a Gold Glove and maybe earn some Rookie of the Year votes. You were actually onto something with Chris Sale though!
GS: What a season for Sale. I said I’d love to see him get some Cy Young votes “or at least be able to have a complete comeback season after so many waylaid attempts,” and he just completed a pitching Triple Crown season and is favored to win the CY.
However, most of my other individual predictions weren’t great. I was very wrong in saying Brayan Bello would receive Cy Young votes, though I did label it a bold prediction, and you agreed it could happen! I was also wrong to pick Devers and Casas as AL MVP candidates, but I chose well with Rafaela; he became the only player in MLB history to make at least 60 starts at both shortstop and centerfield this season, and if that doesn’t say ‘Utility Gold Glove,’ I don’t know what does.
For the postseason, I said it was the Orioles’ division to lose, which they did. I was right about the AL Central being tougher this year and the Tigers and Royals coming out of their rebuilds, though I didn’t think it would be to the extent that they’re both Wild Card teams. I said either the Padres or Giants, but not both, would get a Wild Card behind the division-title Dodgers, but I was wrong in picking the Cubs for the Central, and I wasn’t sure if the Phillies could “topple the Braves” for the NL East crown. You and I were both down on the Angels and Mike Trout, and unfortunately, turned out to be right about them.
What should Red Sox do this offseason?
GS: Let’s shift focus to the offseason. What do you think the Red Sox need to get back to playing in October?
MC: The bullpen needs a lot of work. Kenley Jansen isn’t coming back, Chris Martin’s future is up in the air, and after that almost everyone else is kind of a question mark. The Red Sox really have something in Justin Slaten, and getting Liam Hendriks and Garrett Whitlock back healthy as high-leverage options in the late innings is tantalizing, but they won’t be enough. Craig Breslow needs to bring in some more established arms, probably at least two, to make sure this group has a strong enough foundation to compete. After that, anything you get from the Greg Weisserts, Zack Kellys and Luis Guerreros of the world is gravy.
GS: Agreed. The bullpen should be a top priority. A frontline starter would also help, though if Lucas Giolito is healthy and can get back to the pitcher he was in 2019-21, he could be it. The Red Sox say they want to upgrade both ends of the pitching staff, and adding a left-hander to the rotation would definitely do that. The offense also clearly needs work; the Red Sox left far too many men on base this year – fifth-most in the Majors and third in the American League, to be specific – and they need some more right-handed power. Who’s on your free-agent wish list?
MC: So this is an interesting question. The Red Sox biggest individual needs are a front-of-the-rotation starter and a big, right-handed bat. You could argue both would be better addressed through the trade market than through free agency, but if they were to go the free agent route, I hope they go for Corbin Burnes.
Burnes is a legitimate ace. He’s a former Cy Young Award winner who has made four straight All-Star teams and consistently stayed healthy, exactly the kind of workhorse Boston needs. He’s also proven he can thrive in the AL East, and he’s still pretty young by free agent pitcher standards — he won’t turn 30 until later this month.
Paying a slugger like Pete Alonso big money would probably be a safer bet than any pitcher, but none of the premier free agent bats seem like a good fit. I feel like the better path would be trying to somehow offload Masataka Yoshida and trade for Oakland’s Brent Rooker to take his place as the primary DH. What about you? Who would you like to see the Red Sox bring in?
GS: I agree on Burnes, but even with Nick Pivetta becoming a free agent, that would mean the Red Sox have seven starting pitching options – Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Cooper Criswell, Richard Fitts, Lucas Giolito, Tanner Houck – which is too many to carry on the 26-man roster, especially since they’re all righties.
Blake Snell could be a lefty option if he opts out of the second year of his Giants deal, which seems likely given his strong finish to the season. Hard to argue with his résumé: he’s one of seven pitchers in MLB history to win the Cy Young in both leagues. I also feel like people aren’t talking enough about Max Fried. He owns a 3.07 career ERA, just completed his second All-Star season, and won three consecutive pitching Gold Gloves between 2020-22. He’s also a year younger than Snell.
The Red Sox could repeat history and trade for another White Sox southpaw, but I think the asking price for Garrett Crochet will be too high given his age (25), that he won’t become a free agent until 2027, and the dearth of southpaw starters. This season was also the first he’s worked exclusively as a starter, and while he nearly tripled his career-high in innings, he didn’t exceed four innings in a single one of his 14 starts after the end of June. Chris Sale had already established himself as a durable arm by the time Boston gave up several top prospects to get him from Chicago in December 2015.
I’m not sold on Alonso. He’s played nearly a full slate of games every year, including all 162 this year, but he also saw a decrease in power (career-worst .459 slugging), increase in strikeouts, and he only drove in 88 runs, after easily surpassing triple digits in each of the previous two years. Statcast also doesn’t seem to like him for Fenway: according to their Park Factor data, only 190 of his 227 career home runs would’ve been round-trippers in Boston. Of all 30 ballparks, only Detroit (189) would be worse for him. The Red Sox also know they need to improve their infield defense, and Alonso isn’t exactly a defensive upgrade at first base. He was one of nine first baseman around the Majors with at least seven errors – though none of them played nearly as many games as he did – and he’s been a minus-defender in terms of Statcast’s Fielding Run Value and Outs Above Average in five of his six seasons.
Teoscar Hernández would be a great righty bat to add to the lineup, and the Red Sox offered him a two-year deal last winter. However, the current roster doesn’t have room for another outfielder, so they’d need to make other significant moves in order to even have a place for him. Are there any Red Sox free agents you think they should bring back?
MC: I’d like to see Chris Martin come back, but other than that I don’t know if any of Boston’s other free agents make much sense. O’Neill and Pivetta will probably find better fits elsewhere and I think it’s safe to say Kenley Jansen’s time in Boston is over.
Bold predictions
MC: Alright, let’s wrap this up with something fun. Give me one bold prediction for the coming offseason?
GS: The Red Sox will trade at least one of the following big-leaguers: Wilyer Abreu, Triston Casas, or Jarren Duran. What’s your bold prediction?
MC: I agree with you, and to take that one step further, at least one member of the Big Four — Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel or Kristian Campbell — will be dealt as well as part of a franchise-altering blockbuster.
