Hezbollah is widely recognised as the world’s most powerful non-state military force, a reputation forged in brutal wars with Israel and the Syrian Civil War. The Lebanese Shia faction possesses a vast arsenal of an estimated 200,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching every location in Israel.
But as Israel has struck with increasing ferocity over the past fortnight, killing dozens and wounding thousands in an attack on Hezbollah’s communication network, expanding bombing raids across the country, and wiping out the group’s leadership including Secretary General, Hassan Nasrallah, the militant faction has not responded in kind.
Instead, Hezbollah has gradually increased the range of rocket attacks on Israel without appearing to inflict significant casualties or damage – although details of enemy attacks are subject to military censorship in Israel.
Deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem suggested there would be no change to this approach in a public address on Monday, in which he stated Hezbollah would “continue the battle according to the outlined plans”.
Israeli military analysts have expressed surprise at the limited nature of Hezbollah’s responses, described as “cautious” by Ha’aretz defence correspondent Amos Harel, who cited “the decision to launch a lone ballistic missile at the outskirts of Tel Aviv on Wednesday morning, after more than 700 Lebanese were killed since last week”.
The group is likely to be in some disarray having suffered damage to its command structure, but still retains much of its threat, said Miri Eisin, a former senior IDF intelligence officer and director of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism.
“We have certainly degraded some of their capabilities but they still have lots of capabilities,” she said. “I think they are holding back because of what was done to the command and control system. Who gives the orders?”
“They will have areas that are functioning and areas that are less functioning.”
Israeli military officials poured cold water on “exaggerated” reports last week claiming that up to 50 per cent of Hezbollah’s missile battery had been destroyed in air raids, suggesting the majority of the group’s capabilities remained intact.
Nicolas Blanford, an analyst at the Atlantic Council and author of books about Hezbollah, based in Beirut, says the group remains capable of inflicting more powerful blows against Israel but hopes to keep the conflict contained – as does its patron, Iran.
“They are choosing not to escalate,” he told i. “The bottom line is the Iranians and Hezbollah don’t want to get into a full-scale war. That is why they have been using legacy weapon systems…but have not escalated to the level of firing ballistic precision missiles, which in general have a range of a few hundred kilometres and carry warheads of about 500kg.”
“If they started using those against major cities in Israel, like Tel Aviv and Haifa, and going for infrastructure targets, the Israelis will respond in kind and attack Lebanese infrastructure, which have not done so far…[the fighting] has gone up considerably from two weeks ago but it’s still below the threshold of full-scale war.”
The damage Israel has inflicted upon Hezbollah remains unclear, the analyst said, citing information from UN contacts in southern Lebanon claiming that many Israeli strikes in the region are hitting defunct rocket launch sites.
Hezbollah has suffered “huge blows” with the loss of Nasrallah and other leaders but can replace them from within its ranks, Mr Blanford added, while continuing to send limited barrages of rockets into northern Israel and slowly and methodically moving up the escalation ladder by introducing more powerful and longer-range munitions.
Hezbollah claimed on Monday that it had attacked Israel using a “Nour” ballistic missile. The IDF said one projectile launched from Lebanon struck an open area near a community near the northern border.
Dr Colin P Clarke, director of research and international security specialist at The Soufan Centre, also points to the reported refusal of Iran to join the fight.
“Hezbollah has been reluctant to engage more aggressively because it has become clear that the Iranians are not coming to their rescue,” he said.
Dr Clarke suggests that the group blundered by engaging Israel in conventional warfare, where it is at a disadvantage for technology and firepower, and could seek to re-engineer the terms of engagement, as Israel plots a ground invasion.
“I think Hezbollah is hoping that Israel launches a ground invasion,” he said. “That would be Hezbollah’s best bet to level the playing field and use the group’s asymmetric advantage.”
The group is also likely to have an eye on domestic considerations, analysts believe, with little public support for a war with Israel that could devastate the country, and generate a backlash that could threaten Hezbollah’s hold on power in Lebanon.
Michael Young, senior editor at the Carnegie Middle East Centre, based in Beirut, wrote that Nasrallah “probably realised that if the Lebanese were to hold Hezbollah responsible for any escalation in the conflict that leads to Lebanon’s destruction, it would be very difficult for the party to reimpose its writ in the country.”
The group also appears to prize different objectives than Israel, which has sought to decimate Hezbollah’s leadership and capabilities. Nasrallah pledged to maintain the front in solidarity with Hamas during Israel’s assault on Gaza, and as part of the broader “unity of the fronts” that binds the Iran-led coalition of Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis of Yemen, and militias in Iraq and Syria in a common struggle against Israel.
Hezbollah has sought to impose costs through disruption, seeking to maintain the depopulation of northern Israel through steady, low-level attacks, coupled with strikes on infrastructure such as Israel’s second largest port in Haifa. The group’s supporters often cite the tens of thousands of Israelis forced to leave their homes, or run for shelter under rocket barrages, as measures of success.
Dr Amal Saad, a politics lecturer and scholar of Hezbollah at Cardiff University, suggests the group is aiming to exhaust its neighbour rather than win a contest of firepower.
“Hezbollah’s strategy has focused on displacement and paralysis,” she wrote in a post on social media. “Its resistance forces aim to weaken the IDF’s resolve and erode the resilience of Israel’s home front through a strategy of combined military and economic attrition.”
Analysts agree that the faction will not abandon the front now, despite increasingly disastrous consequences for itself and Lebanon.
But as Hezbollah comes under growing pressure, with Israel picking off its officials and freely bombing targets across Lebanon, conditions could deteriorate to the point that the group’s calculations change on the use of more powerful weapons.
“In terms of red lines, if Israel continues to carry out widespread bombings inside Lebanon…[or] if the organisation feels that it’s facing a truly existential threat, it might resort to very high-power weapons,” said David Wood, a Lebanon analyst at the International Crisis Group.
“If Israel continues to increase the intensity of its attacks, then it increases the likelihood that Hezbollah will launch more serious retaliations, which could have disastrous consequences for both Israel and Lebanon,” he added.
